Sell Copper @176 S/l 178 tgt - 171 - 166
Friday, November 21, 2008
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
S&P Nifty (2938.65 points) (-209.60 pts)
As envisaged, the rise got truncated near the crucial resistance of
3160 points. From the opening, the Bears dominated the day
knocking off 229 points (6%) at last trade. With Heavy weights
slipping, all the Sectoral Indices closed deep in the red. The A/D
ratio was highly negative and the volumes remained almost the
same.
We are seeing an “engulfing bearish” pattern (though not classical)
on the Nifty. The Bears again hit back in the right area (3130-
3160). The downswing gained further momentum when the 3085
points was broken decisively. Unless 3255 points is not crossed
preferably in closing, upside is capped. Again the Nifty is near the
38.2% retracement (2863) of the rise from 2252-3240 points. A close
below it for a couple of days may once again see a lower top lower
bottom with support at 2790-2750 points area.
Intraday, pivot at 2945 points needs to be sustained for any
recovery. Resistance is at 3025, 3084 and 3130 points while crucial
support in declines is at 2848 and 2790 points. The Nifty has given
an alarm after breaking 3000 points. The Bulls have to gear up
quickly otherwise the Bear haunt continues.
NIFTY Intra Week
Volatility 508 pts
S1 2686.75
S2 2451.80
R1 3120.40
R2 3357.15
3160 points. From the opening, the Bears dominated the day
knocking off 229 points (6%) at last trade. With Heavy weights
slipping, all the Sectoral Indices closed deep in the red. The A/D
ratio was highly negative and the volumes remained almost the
same.
We are seeing an “engulfing bearish” pattern (though not classical)
on the Nifty. The Bears again hit back in the right area (3130-
3160). The downswing gained further momentum when the 3085
points was broken decisively. Unless 3255 points is not crossed
preferably in closing, upside is capped. Again the Nifty is near the
38.2% retracement (2863) of the rise from 2252-3240 points. A close
below it for a couple of days may once again see a lower top lower
bottom with support at 2790-2750 points area.
Intraday, pivot at 2945 points needs to be sustained for any
recovery. Resistance is at 3025, 3084 and 3130 points while crucial
support in declines is at 2848 and 2790 points. The Nifty has given
an alarm after breaking 3000 points. The Bulls have to gear up
quickly otherwise the Bear haunt continues.
NIFTY Intra Week
Volatility 508 pts
S1 2686.75
S2 2451.80
R1 3120.40
R2 3357.15
Commodities Call........!
SELL GOLD AT 11600 AND 11650 SL 11710 TGT 11420 11320.............!
SELL COPPER AT 184 - 185 SL 190 TGT 175 ...........!
SELL COPPER AT 184 - 185 SL 190 TGT 175 ...........!
Friday, November 7, 2008
AGRI COMMODITY NEWS
AGRI COMMODITY NEWS
· No case for hike in customs duty on veg oil (BL)
· Spot rubber declines on buyer resistance (BL)
· Pepper futures move up on buying support (BL)
· Tea imports up at 12.68 mkg during Jan-Aug (BL)
· Rise in most crops’ rabi acreage (BL)
· 11 lakh t soyameal contracted for exports (BL)
· Malaysian Palm Oil Stocks may exceed 2 mt (BL)
· Falling global prices may help cut fertiliser subsidy bill (BL)
· Bollgard cotton brings higher yield, incomes (BS)
· Comexe's turnover up 23% in October (BS)
· E-auction of tea is around the corner (ET)
· Rupee falls to 47.94 in early trade (FE)
· Low stocks at storage facilities set to increase demand for red chillies (FE)
· Rice may again climb on low stocks: report (FE)
AA : The Asian Age
BL : Business Line
BS : Business Standard
CM : Capital Market
ET : The Economic Times
FE : Financial Express
HT : The Hindustan Times
IE : The Indian Express
RS : Rashtriya Sahara
TOI : Times of India
· No case for hike in customs duty on veg oil (BL)
· Spot rubber declines on buyer resistance (BL)
· Pepper futures move up on buying support (BL)
· Tea imports up at 12.68 mkg during Jan-Aug (BL)
· Rise in most crops’ rabi acreage (BL)
· 11 lakh t soyameal contracted for exports (BL)
· Malaysian Palm Oil Stocks may exceed 2 mt (BL)
· Falling global prices may help cut fertiliser subsidy bill (BL)
· Bollgard cotton brings higher yield, incomes (BS)
· Comexe's turnover up 23% in October (BS)
· E-auction of tea is around the corner (ET)
· Rupee falls to 47.94 in early trade (FE)
· Low stocks at storage facilities set to increase demand for red chillies (FE)
· Rice may again climb on low stocks: report (FE)
AA : The Asian Age
BL : Business Line
BS : Business Standard
CM : Capital Market
ET : The Economic Times
FE : Financial Express
HT : The Hindustan Times
IE : The Indian Express
RS : Rashtriya Sahara
TOI : Times of India
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Commodities Call............!
SELL COPPER AT 308 SL 316 TGT 180
SELL GOLD 11780 SL 12115 TGT 10800
SELL SILVER AT 16670 SL 17200 TGT 15900 15500
Monday, October 6, 2008
S&P Nifty (3602.35 points) (-215.95 pts)
It was carnage on the D-street as the BSE Sensex closed below the
12K mark (nifty managed to hang on above 3600). Another deep cut
of over 5.5% left the Bulls bleeding. CGS and IT sector collapsed
while meltdown in metal stocks continued. RIL along with Power
stocks led the turmoil. The A/D ratio was highly negative and the
volumes were higher than the previous session.
In this process, the Nifty has retraced 50% (3603) of the rise from
849-6357 points. Immediate support is pegged at 3566 points which
is the 50% retracement of the rally from 775 (Dec 1996) to 6357
(Jan 2008). If the above supports hold we may see a pullback to
3879 points (trendline resistance in pink) with intermediate hurdles
at 3745 and 3818 points. The 3920 points has to be decisively
crossed to stall the downswing and sustained move above 4110
points is required to signal strength. Yesterday was the 55th trading
day (Fibonacci number) from the July 2008 low at 3790 points.
Intraday, pivot is pegged at 3646 points which needs to be sustained
for pullback to materialize in a rally. Resistance is at 3745 and up
at 3805 points in an optimistic scenario. Crucial support in declines
is at 3555-3565 points. Respective governments are taking utmost
measures and pumping liquidity to bail out the Bulls. Hope their
efforts do not go futile this time. High volatility with intraday
swings is likely to prevail, trade with a stop loss.
NIFTY Intra
Volatility 319 pts
S2 3623.95
S3 3724.40
R1 3974.20
R2 4130.05
12K mark (nifty managed to hang on above 3600). Another deep cut
of over 5.5% left the Bulls bleeding. CGS and IT sector collapsed
while meltdown in metal stocks continued. RIL along with Power
stocks led the turmoil. The A/D ratio was highly negative and the
volumes were higher than the previous session.
In this process, the Nifty has retraced 50% (3603) of the rise from
849-6357 points. Immediate support is pegged at 3566 points which
is the 50% retracement of the rally from 775 (Dec 1996) to 6357
(Jan 2008). If the above supports hold we may see a pullback to
3879 points (trendline resistance in pink) with intermediate hurdles
at 3745 and 3818 points. The 3920 points has to be decisively
crossed to stall the downswing and sustained move above 4110
points is required to signal strength. Yesterday was the 55th trading
day (Fibonacci number) from the July 2008 low at 3790 points.
Intraday, pivot is pegged at 3646 points which needs to be sustained
for pullback to materialize in a rally. Resistance is at 3745 and up
at 3805 points in an optimistic scenario. Crucial support in declines
is at 3555-3565 points. Respective governments are taking utmost
measures and pumping liquidity to bail out the Bulls. Hope their
efforts do not go futile this time. High volatility with intraday
swings is likely to prevail, trade with a stop loss.
NIFTY Intra
Volatility 319 pts
S2 3623.95
S3 3724.40
R1 3974.20
R2 4130.05
Short Term.......!
Auro Pharma Buy in dips
CMP: 273.30
Tgt: 285-288
The daily candlestick chart of Auro Pharma shows a decline from Rs.313 to Rs.260.
Once again it is near the support around Rs.260. Any decline should not decisively
break Rs.256 for a pullback to Rs.285-288. High risk traders can buy in dips with a
strict stop loss below Rs.258 in close. A decisive break of Rs.256 would continue the
downtrend. Holding period is 7-8 days.
* It’s a high risk call trade in cash and in small quantities.
Bharti Airtel Risky
Buy 740 calls in dips
CMP: 31.80
The daily candlestick chart of Bharti shows that it is near the support line of channel
in orange. Strong support is pegged at 692-700 which if holds can test Rs.745-755.
High risk traders can buy Bharti 740 call in declines with strict stop loss
below Rs.15 in close for a target of 45-50. Holding period is 10-12 days.
* It’s a high risk call trade in small lots.
Monday, September 29, 2008
S&P Nifty (3850.05 points) (-50.70 pts)
It was blood on the D-street as the Indices hit new 2008 low.
Barring FMCG sector, sell off was seen all across the board.
Banking, CGS, IT and Realty stocks were down 5%. Meltdown was
also witnessed in Midcap segment. The Nifty opened lower and kept
on drifting down in the first session. In afternoon, it marginally
breached the recent low at 3790 points (current low 3777). Last
hour of trade was extremely volatile with over 75-80 points swings
on both the sides. Failing to breach the day’s low saw a fair amount
of short covering. RIL and Bharti bounced smartly recovering
around 100 points in the Nifty. Volumes were higher and the A/D
ratio was negative at1:3.
The Nifty came al most near the Head & Shoulder target of 3770
points. A decisive breach of it would lead to fresh downswing with
support at 3663 points. Weekly S2 is pegged at 3724 points.
Immediate resistance has shifted down to 4115-4150 points while
short term trend remains down as long as 4245 points is not
decisively crossed.
Intraday, pivot is pegged at 3885 points which needs to be sustained
for any up move. Resistance is at 3924 and up at 3795-4015 points
in an optimistic scenario. Crucial support in declines is at 3770 and
3724 points. Steroids and Injections seem to have no effect on the
ailing Bulls. If the support holds we might see a small pullback, but
failing in it their nightmare continues!!!
NIFTY Intra Week
Volatility 332 pts
S1 3811.35
S2 3724.40
R1 4202.20
R2 4445.00
Barring FMCG sector, sell off was seen all across the board.
Banking, CGS, IT and Realty stocks were down 5%. Meltdown was
also witnessed in Midcap segment. The Nifty opened lower and kept
on drifting down in the first session. In afternoon, it marginally
breached the recent low at 3790 points (current low 3777). Last
hour of trade was extremely volatile with over 75-80 points swings
on both the sides. Failing to breach the day’s low saw a fair amount
of short covering. RIL and Bharti bounced smartly recovering
around 100 points in the Nifty. Volumes were higher and the A/D
ratio was negative at1:3.
The Nifty came al most near the Head & Shoulder target of 3770
points. A decisive breach of it would lead to fresh downswing with
support at 3663 points. Weekly S2 is pegged at 3724 points.
Immediate resistance has shifted down to 4115-4150 points while
short term trend remains down as long as 4245 points is not
decisively crossed.
Intraday, pivot is pegged at 3885 points which needs to be sustained
for any up move. Resistance is at 3924 and up at 3795-4015 points
in an optimistic scenario. Crucial support in declines is at 3770 and
3724 points. Steroids and Injections seem to have no effect on the
ailing Bulls. If the support holds we might see a small pullback, but
failing in it their nightmare continues!!!
NIFTY Intra Week
Volatility 332 pts
S1 3811.35
S2 3724.40
R1 4202.20
R2 4445.00
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
S&P Nifty (4074.90 points) (+2.00pts)
Yesterday, the Bulls triumphed in an intensely fought battle. A
huge crack developed at the open was filled up by the end of the
day. Reliance and Banking (PSU) stocks recovered smartly and with
the CGS sector chipping in; what appeared to be pullback emerged
into a 150 points rally. Intraday Bulls had no option but to give up.
Volumes were higher but the A/D ratio was marginally negative.
Short covering was seen when the Nifty touched the 1st target of
3920 points (also a fall of 300 points from 4220 as mentioned
earlier). Now the 3920-3938 points’ area (weekly s2) is a crucial
support but the Nifty needs to sustain above 4220 points to ward off
the Bear threat. Resistance is pegged at 4323 and 4445 points.
We are seeing a “long legged doji” pattern after a 639 points fall in 7
sessions. The odds have become even around 3950 points. Intraday,
pivot is at 4028 points with crucial support at 3960 and 3920 points.
If it sustains above 4077 points then a test of 4129-4167 points. The
Index Heavy weights have ably shouldered the responsibility, now
it’s a matter to hold on. As expected, Reliance and Banking stocks
performed; now contribution of Metal pack is required to keep the
momentum otherwise the nightmare continues.
NIFTY Intra Week
Volatility 292 pts
S1 4099.70
S2 3938.85
R1 4361.90
R2 4563.00
huge crack developed at the open was filled up by the end of the
day. Reliance and Banking (PSU) stocks recovered smartly and with
the CGS sector chipping in; what appeared to be pullback emerged
into a 150 points rally. Intraday Bulls had no option but to give up.
Volumes were higher but the A/D ratio was marginally negative.
Short covering was seen when the Nifty touched the 1st target of
3920 points (also a fall of 300 points from 4220 as mentioned
earlier). Now the 3920-3938 points’ area (weekly s2) is a crucial
support but the Nifty needs to sustain above 4220 points to ward off
the Bear threat. Resistance is pegged at 4323 and 4445 points.
We are seeing a “long legged doji” pattern after a 639 points fall in 7
sessions. The odds have become even around 3950 points. Intraday,
pivot is at 4028 points with crucial support at 3960 and 3920 points.
If it sustains above 4077 points then a test of 4129-4167 points. The
Index Heavy weights have ably shouldered the responsibility, now
it’s a matter to hold on. As expected, Reliance and Banking stocks
performed; now contribution of Metal pack is required to keep the
momentum otherwise the nightmare continues.
NIFTY Intra Week
Volatility 292 pts
S1 4099.70
S2 3938.85
R1 4361.90
R2 4563.00
Short Term........!
Essar Oil Risky Buy
CMP: 173.35
Tgt: 181-184
The daily candlestick chart of Essar Oil shows a bullish candle. It is getting support
around Rs.160. The oscillators are turning up from the oversold zone . One can buy in
declines around Rs.168-170 with a strict stop loss below Rs.162 in close for a pullback
up to Rs.181-184 in the coming 7-8 trading sessions. A breach of Rs.158 would negate
the pullback.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
================================================================
Dabur Ind Chance Buy
CMP: 88.80
Tgt: 92.80-95
The daily candlestick chart of Dabur shows a bullish candle. It is nearing the support
at Rs.85 which if holds can test Rs.92.80-95 in the coming 7-8 trading sessions. High
risk traders can buy in declines with a strict stop loss below Rs.85 in close.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
CMP: 173.35
Tgt: 181-184
The daily candlestick chart of Essar Oil shows a bullish candle. It is getting support
around Rs.160. The oscillators are turning up from the oversold zone . One can buy in
declines around Rs.168-170 with a strict stop loss below Rs.162 in close for a pullback
up to Rs.181-184 in the coming 7-8 trading sessions. A breach of Rs.158 would negate
the pullback.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
================================================================
Dabur Ind Chance Buy
CMP: 88.80
Tgt: 92.80-95
The daily candlestick chart of Dabur shows a bullish candle. It is nearing the support
at Rs.85 which if holds can test Rs.92.80-95 in the coming 7-8 trading sessions. High
risk traders can buy in declines with a strict stop loss below Rs.85 in close.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
Monday, September 15, 2008
S&P Nifty (4072.90 points) (-155.55 pts)
It was mayhem as the markets were bleeding with a deep cut of
3.8%. Around 550 points were knocked off from the Nifty in the last
5 trading sessions. Global fears continue to haunt the ailing Bulls.
Barring FMCG, all the Sectoral Indices plunged. They opened lower
and drifted down further to an intraday low of 3955 points but
recovery in SBI and RIL led the pullback of around 150 points in
the last hour. Volumes were higher while the A/D ratio was highly
negative at 1:5.
As mentioned earlier break out below 4220 points saw a swift move
of 250-300 points. The targets as per “Head & Shoulder” pattern
3920 and 3770 points. It also completed the 78.6% retracement of
the rise from 3790-4649 points. It has to sustain above 4220 points
(neck line) to show some semblance. Resistance is pegged at 4338
while trendline in brown is at 4445 points.
Intraday, pivot is at 4088 points which if sustained then resistance
is at 4156 points. Crucial support in declines is at 3960 and 3920
points. The Bulls need to reunite with an uphill task of arresting
the fall lies on the shoulders of the Index Heavyweights. Markets
are likely to remain volatile, trade cautiously.
NIFTY Intra Week
Volatility 292 pts
S1 4099.70
S2 3938.85
R1 4361.90
R2 4563.00
3.8%. Around 550 points were knocked off from the Nifty in the last
5 trading sessions. Global fears continue to haunt the ailing Bulls.
Barring FMCG, all the Sectoral Indices plunged. They opened lower
and drifted down further to an intraday low of 3955 points but
recovery in SBI and RIL led the pullback of around 150 points in
the last hour. Volumes were higher while the A/D ratio was highly
negative at 1:5.
As mentioned earlier break out below 4220 points saw a swift move
of 250-300 points. The targets as per “Head & Shoulder” pattern
3920 and 3770 points. It also completed the 78.6% retracement of
the rise from 3790-4649 points. It has to sustain above 4220 points
(neck line) to show some semblance. Resistance is pegged at 4338
while trendline in brown is at 4445 points.
Intraday, pivot is at 4088 points which if sustained then resistance
is at 4156 points. Crucial support in declines is at 3960 and 3920
points. The Bulls need to reunite with an uphill task of arresting
the fall lies on the shoulders of the Index Heavyweights. Markets
are likely to remain volatile, trade cautiously.
NIFTY Intra Week
Volatility 292 pts
S1 4099.70
S2 3938.85
R1 4361.90
R2 4563.00
Monday, September 15, 2008
Precious Metals
MCX October Gold – We saw the short covering rally on Friday and it is likely to continue till 11676 levels which is a trend reversal level. A close above this level is required to reverse the current downtrend.
Trend – DownNext
Targets – NeutralTrend
Reversal – 11676Support – 11378, 11293, 11171
Resistance – 11542, 11676, 11790
MCX December Silver – We should see more short covering in the coming days only to find resistance at the trend reversal level of 18782. A close above this level will reverse the current downtrend.
Short Term Trend – Down
Next Target – Neutral
Trend Reversal – 18782
Support – 18040, 17925, 11752
Resistance – 18256, 18487, 18782
MCX November Copper – Posted a trend reversal. More upside likely if the prices manages to close above 328. Conservative traders are recommended to trade above 328.
Short Term Trend – Up
Next Target – 340
Trend Reversal – 305
Support – 323, 317, 310
Resistance – 328, 332, 338
MCX October Gold – We saw the short covering rally on Friday and it is likely to continue till 11676 levels which is a trend reversal level. A close above this level is required to reverse the current downtrend.
Trend – DownNext
Targets – NeutralTrend
Reversal – 11676Support – 11378, 11293, 11171
Resistance – 11542, 11676, 11790
MCX December Silver – We should see more short covering in the coming days only to find resistance at the trend reversal level of 18782. A close above this level will reverse the current downtrend.
Short Term Trend – Down
Next Target – Neutral
Trend Reversal – 18782
Support – 18040, 17925, 11752
Resistance – 18256, 18487, 18782
MCX November Copper – Posted a trend reversal. More upside likely if the prices manages to close above 328. Conservative traders are recommended to trade above 328.
Short Term Trend – Up
Next Target – 340
Trend Reversal – 305
Support – 323, 317, 310
Resistance – 328, 332, 338
Thursday, September 11, 2008
market comments - 11th Sep.
MCX October Gold – Negative bias will continue, however prices are oversold and likely to see a short covering rally
Trend – Down
Next Targets – Neutral
Trend Reversal – 11945
Support – 11276, 11186, 11126
Resistance – 11465, 11542, 11680
Trend – Down
Next Targets – Neutral
Trend Reversal – 11945
Support – 11276, 11186, 11126
Resistance – 11465, 11542, 11680
Saturday, September 6, 2008
Metals & Energy News Headlines
Metals & Energy News
*Forex reserves dip $2 b as RBI sell dollars. The Economic Times
*FMC extends ban on Future trade in four commodities. Business Standard
*
*Rupee falls to 20-month low. Business Standard
*US stocks fall on drop in payrolls. Business Standard
*Comexes’ turnover rises 45% in August. Business Standard
*Govt hikes support price for cotton. Mint
*Unemployment rate hits 5-year high as economy sheds more jobs. Mint
*Oil cos keen on Columbian hydrocarbon sector. Business Line
*Zinc prices likely to slide further on oversupply. Business Line
*Gold rallies on US report. Business Line
*Copper drops below $7000/t. Business Line
*China steel prices gain. Business Line
*Crude drops to 5 month low as $ gains. Business Line
*NSE currency futures trade drifts to realistic levels. Business Line
*Oil marketing companies gain from fall in crude prices. Business Line
*Forex reserves dip $2 b as RBI sell dollars. The Economic Times
*FMC extends ban on Future trade in four commodities. Business Standard
*
*Rupee falls to 20-month low. Business Standard
*US stocks fall on drop in payrolls. Business Standard
*Comexes’ turnover rises 45% in August. Business Standard
*Govt hikes support price for cotton. Mint
*Unemployment rate hits 5-year high as economy sheds more jobs. Mint
*Oil cos keen on Columbian hydrocarbon sector. Business Line
*Zinc prices likely to slide further on oversupply. Business Line
*Gold rallies on US report. Business Line
*Copper drops below $7000/t. Business Line
*China steel prices gain. Business Line
*Crude drops to 5 month low as $ gains. Business Line
*NSE currency futures trade drifts to realistic levels. Business Line
*Oil marketing companies gain from fall in crude prices. Business Line
Friday, September 5, 2008
AGRI COMMODITIES NEWS
*Govt extends ban on 4 COMMODITY futures (till Nov 30)…..as per estimates, since ban was imposed, RUBBER prices in India rose by 12%, SOY BEAN OIL and CHANA by 4% each, only POTATO prices fell by 12% (IE)
*COMMEXES’ turnover rises 45% in August (compared to last year) (BS)
*COTTON production seen at 32.5 million bales for crop year ending Sept 2009 (FE)
*RICE, OILSEEDS acreage up; CEREALS, PULSES decline (FE)
*The Commission for Agricultural Costs & Prices (CACP) recommends SMP of Rs 125/Q for SUGARCANE in 09-10 (ET)
*Bihar floods take a toll on PADDY (BL)
AA : The Asian Age
BL : Business Line
BS : Business Standard
CM : Capital Market
ET : The Economic Times
FE : Financial Express
HT : The Hindustan Times
IE : The Indian Express
RS : Rashtriya Sahara
TOI : Times of India
Monday, September 1, 2008
S&P Nifty (4348.65 points) (-11.35 pts)
The Nifty opened lower but the Bulls held on and prevented any
further damage. Repeated attempts in the afternoon failed to break
the days low as a result of which intraday short covering was seen
in the end. The CGS sector recovered from the low and with ONGC
and banking stocks leading the counter-attack; all the intraday
losses got wiped off at last trade. Volumes were lower and the A/D
ratio was marginally positive.
Yesterday, resistance line in pink acted as support. Today it is
pegged at 4267 points. Some support is seen around the 50%
retracement of the rise from 3790-4649 points. The Bears need to
decisively break 4198-4220 points’ area for fresh downswing.
Resistance in rallies is at 4445 and 4529 points.
Intraday, pivot in the Nifty is pegged at 4356 points. If it sustains
above it then resistance in rallies is at 4408 and 4445 points. The
Bears need to break below 4276 points to negate the pullback.
Immediate support is at 4315 points. The Bears will again apply
their might in the coming days hence be careful and keep on taking
profits in long at regular intervals.
NIFTY Intra Week
Volatility 265 pts
S1 4234.50
S2 4141.55
R1 4433.90
R2 4540.40
Voltas
further damage. Repeated attempts in the afternoon failed to break
the days low as a result of which intraday short covering was seen
in the end. The CGS sector recovered from the low and with ONGC
and banking stocks leading the counter-attack; all the intraday
losses got wiped off at last trade. Volumes were lower and the A/D
ratio was marginally positive.
Yesterday, resistance line in pink acted as support. Today it is
pegged at 4267 points. Some support is seen around the 50%
retracement of the rise from 3790-4649 points. The Bears need to
decisively break 4198-4220 points’ area for fresh downswing.
Resistance in rallies is at 4445 and 4529 points.
Intraday, pivot in the Nifty is pegged at 4356 points. If it sustains
above it then resistance in rallies is at 4408 and 4445 points. The
Bears need to break below 4276 points to negate the pullback.
Immediate support is at 4315 points. The Bears will again apply
their might in the coming days hence be careful and keep on taking
profits in long at regular intervals.
NIFTY Intra Week
Volatility 265 pts
S1 4234.50
S2 4141.55
R1 4433.90
R2 4540.40
Voltas
Short Terms...........!
Voltas Ltd Chance
Buy CMP: 124.70
Tgt: 129-132
The daily candlestick chart of Voltas shows a bullish candle. After a vertical decline
from Rs.147, it has once again taken support around Rs.118-119. High risk traders
can buy in declines around Rs.122 with a strict stop loss below Rs.119 in close for a
pullback to Rs.129-132 in the coming 7-8 days. A breach of Rs.118 can see it drifting
to Rs.114.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
=====================================================
Parsvnath Dev Chance
Buy CMP: 120.05
Tgt: 125-128
The daily candlestick chart of Parsvnath shows a bullish candle on high volumes. It
has closed above Rs.120 for the first time in the last 5-6 sessions. High risk traders
can buy Parsvnath in declines with a strict stop loss above Rs.115.20 in close
for a pullback to Rs.125-128-132 in the coming 7-8 trading sessions.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Metals & Energy News
* RBI expects no respite from rising inflation. Mint
* Trading in currency futures on NSE begins. Mint
*Rupee at 17-month low. Mint
*FMC not to hike penalty; mulls other options. Mint
*Gold near 2-week high, eyes US data. Business Line
* Crude above $118 as storm threatens to hit US coast. Business Line
*Copper falls on worries over China demand. Business Line
*Zinc declines a tad. Business Line
*Metals’ outlook positive despite recent correction. Business Line
*Bond gain for sixth day as rupee slides. The Financial Express
*Forex reserves surge $1.08 bn to $ 297.3 bn. The Financial Express
*Gold firm, demands slows as dips eyed. The Financial Express
*GDP falls to 7.9%. Business Standard
*High copper prices may not last long. Business Standard
*Foreign Exchange Reserves, Including Gold & SDR, rise $1,076 Million To
*Touch $297.3 Billion. The Economic Times
*Currency futures get off the mark. The Economic Times
* Trading in currency futures on NSE begins. Mint
*Rupee at 17-month low. Mint
*FMC not to hike penalty; mulls other options. Mint
*Gold near 2-week high, eyes US data. Business Line
* Crude above $118 as storm threatens to hit US coast. Business Line
*Copper falls on worries over China demand. Business Line
*Zinc declines a tad. Business Line
*Metals’ outlook positive despite recent correction. Business Line
*Bond gain for sixth day as rupee slides. The Financial Express
*Forex reserves surge $1.08 bn to $ 297.3 bn. The Financial Express
*Gold firm, demands slows as dips eyed. The Financial Express
*GDP falls to 7.9%. Business Standard
*High copper prices may not last long. Business Standard
*Foreign Exchange Reserves, Including Gold & SDR, rise $1,076 Million To
*Touch $297.3 Billion. The Economic Times
*Currency futures get off the mark. The Economic Times
Day’s Highlight
Friday’s Highlights were:
• Crude oil accelerated as storm Gustav shutting oil, gas output across Gulf.
• US consumer spending up 0.2 pct; personal income tumbled 0.7 pct.
• US Chicago purchaser index raised to 57.9 vs. 49.8 expected.
• US Aug Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment rises to 63.0 vs. 62.0 expected.
• Crude oil accelerated as storm Gustav shutting oil, gas output across Gulf.
• US consumer spending up 0.2 pct; personal income tumbled 0.7 pct.
• US Chicago purchaser index raised to 57.9 vs. 49.8 expected.
• US Aug Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment rises to 63.0 vs. 62.0 expected.
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
S&P Nifty (4292.10 points) (-45.40 pts)
Again the Nifty traded in a narrow range on comparatively lower
volumes. It oscillated within the intraday levels of 4373 and 4280
points. On opening flat it languished for major portion of the day.
Failing to cross the required 4373 points, the Bears took charge in
the last hour. Free fall in the Banking and CGS sector led the down
slide and with Oil & Gas joining the Bulls had no choice but to give
up in the end. Support from Infosys went in vain as the Indices
closed a percent lower. The A/D ratio was negative at 1:1.5.
The Bears are defending their level at 4430-4445 points. Now the
onus is on the Bulls to hold 4220-4240 points’ area. A decisive
breakout from this range should give a trending move. A breach of
the recent low at 4158 points would push the Bulls on a back foot.
Resistance in rallies is at 4529 points.
Intraday, crucial support is at 4270-4245-4223 points. Pivot at 4313
points needs to be sustained for any upside. Resistance is pegged at
4343 and 4375-4387 points. Unless the 4353 points is not crossed
decisively, the Bears are safe. With August F & O expiry today and
inflation figures a concern, caution is advocated.
NIFTY Intra Week
Volatility 265 pts
S1 4234.50
S2 4141.55
R1 4433.90
R2 4540.40
volumes. It oscillated within the intraday levels of 4373 and 4280
points. On opening flat it languished for major portion of the day.
Failing to cross the required 4373 points, the Bears took charge in
the last hour. Free fall in the Banking and CGS sector led the down
slide and with Oil & Gas joining the Bulls had no choice but to give
up in the end. Support from Infosys went in vain as the Indices
closed a percent lower. The A/D ratio was negative at 1:1.5.
The Bears are defending their level at 4430-4445 points. Now the
onus is on the Bulls to hold 4220-4240 points’ area. A decisive
breakout from this range should give a trending move. A breach of
the recent low at 4158 points would push the Bulls on a back foot.
Resistance in rallies is at 4529 points.
Intraday, crucial support is at 4270-4245-4223 points. Pivot at 4313
points needs to be sustained for any upside. Resistance is pegged at
4343 and 4375-4387 points. Unless the 4353 points is not crossed
decisively, the Bears are safe. With August F & O expiry today and
inflation figures a concern, caution is advocated.
NIFTY Intra Week
Volatility 265 pts
S1 4234.50
S2 4141.55
R1 4433.90
R2 4540.40
Short Term............!
Indian Hotel Chance
Buy CMP: 77.05
Tgt: 81-82
The daily candlestick chart of Indian Hotel shows a vertical decline from Rs.90 to
Rs.74.50. It is consolidating around Rs.76 for the past couple of sessions. Volumes
are slowly picking up. One can buy in declines around Rs.75-76 with a strict stop loss
below Rs.73.60 in close for a pullback to Rs.81-82 in the coming 7-8 days. A breach of
Rs.73.50 would continue its downtrend.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
===============================================
Hero Honda Risky
Buy CMP: 808.85
Tgt: 822-828
The daily candlestick chart of Hero Honda shows a bullish candle on high volumes. A
sustained upmove above Rs.811 can test Rs.819-822-828 in the coming 2-3 days.
High risk traders can buy in declines with a strict stop loss above Rs.795 in
close.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
Buy CMP: 77.05
Tgt: 81-82
The daily candlestick chart of Indian Hotel shows a vertical decline from Rs.90 to
Rs.74.50. It is consolidating around Rs.76 for the past couple of sessions. Volumes
are slowly picking up. One can buy in declines around Rs.75-76 with a strict stop loss
below Rs.73.60 in close for a pullback to Rs.81-82 in the coming 7-8 days. A breach of
Rs.73.50 would continue its downtrend.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
===============================================
Hero Honda Risky
Buy CMP: 808.85
Tgt: 822-828
The daily candlestick chart of Hero Honda shows a bullish candle on high volumes. A
sustained upmove above Rs.811 can test Rs.819-822-828 in the coming 2-3 days.
High risk traders can buy in declines with a strict stop loss above Rs.795 in
close.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
S&P Nifty (4337.50 points) (+2.15 pts)
The Indices continue to oscillate in a narrow range leaving the
market players perplexed. Gap up or down openings get filled up by
close indicating that both the Bulls and the Bears are holding their
territory and waiting for the other one to make a mo ve. Infosys
cushioned the morning fall and later the Banking, CGS sector along
with Reliance pack recovered from their lows providing some
intraday movement. The A/D ratio was slightly negative with
marginal rise in the volumes.
For the past couple of sessions, the Nifty is moving in a 150-175
points range. Support is pegged at 4220-4240 points while if the
resistance at 4430-4445 points is decisively crossed it may signal
some strength. Volatility is shrinking day by day; range expansion
is again due in the coming days.
Intraday, pivot is at 4327 points and immediate support is at 4280
points. The Bears have to push the Nifty below 4258 points to
mount the driver seat failing which the Bulls stand a chance. It has
to sustain above 4373 points for an intraday move to sustain and
surge further. Keep stop losses as we enter into penultimate day of
August F&O expiry.
NIFTY Intra Week
Volatility 265 pts
S1 4234.50
S2 4141.55
R1 4433.90
R2 4540.40
market players perplexed. Gap up or down openings get filled up by
close indicating that both the Bulls and the Bears are holding their
territory and waiting for the other one to make a mo ve. Infosys
cushioned the morning fall and later the Banking, CGS sector along
with Reliance pack recovered from their lows providing some
intraday movement. The A/D ratio was slightly negative with
marginal rise in the volumes.
For the past couple of sessions, the Nifty is moving in a 150-175
points range. Support is pegged at 4220-4240 points while if the
resistance at 4430-4445 points is decisively crossed it may signal
some strength. Volatility is shrinking day by day; range expansion
is again due in the coming days.
Intraday, pivot is at 4327 points and immediate support is at 4280
points. The Bears have to push the Nifty below 4258 points to
mount the driver seat failing which the Bulls stand a chance. It has
to sustain above 4373 points for an intraday move to sustain and
surge further. Keep stop losses as we enter into penultimate day of
August F&O expiry.
NIFTY Intra Week
Volatility 265 pts
S1 4234.50
S2 4141.55
R1 4433.90
R2 4540.40
Short Term.............!
Nagar Const. Chance Buy CMP: 122.85 Tgt: 129-130
The daily candlestick chart of Nag Constn shows a bullish candle. After a decline
from Rs.146 it is once again nearing support at Rs.112-115. High risk traders can buy
in declines around Rs.118-120 with a strict stop loss below Rs.113.50 in close for a
pullback to Rs.129-130 in the coming 7-8 days. A breach of Rs.112 would negate the
bullishness.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
Rel Infra Chance Buy CMP: 1002.30 Tgt: 1024-1053
The daily candlestick chart of Rel Infra shows a bullish candle on high volumes. It is
pecking the earlier highs at Rs.1016. If it sustains above Rs.1018-1024 then a test of
Rs.1053 is likely. High risk traders can buy Rel Infra in declines around
Rs.985 with a strict stop loss above Rs.963 in close for a pullback to Rs.1024
and an optimistic target of Rs.1053 in the coming 7-8 trading sessions.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
The daily candlestick chart of Nag Constn shows a bullish candle. After a decline
from Rs.146 it is once again nearing support at Rs.112-115. High risk traders can buy
in declines around Rs.118-120 with a strict stop loss below Rs.113.50 in close for a
pullback to Rs.129-130 in the coming 7-8 days. A breach of Rs.112 would negate the
bullishness.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
Rel Infra Chance Buy CMP: 1002.30 Tgt: 1024-1053
The daily candlestick chart of Rel Infra shows a bullish candle on high volumes. It is
pecking the earlier highs at Rs.1016. If it sustains above Rs.1018-1024 then a test of
Rs.1053 is likely. High risk traders can buy Rel Infra in declines around
Rs.985 with a strict stop loss above Rs.963 in close for a pullback to Rs.1024
and an optimistic target of Rs.1053 in the coming 7-8 trading sessions.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
Thursday, August 21, 2008
S&P Nifty (4283.85 points) (-131.90 pts)
There was blood on the D-street as the Bulls were slaughtered
mercilessly. The Bears were back with a bang knocking of 140
points. The relentless selling was seen from the opening bell till the
last minute of the day. Banking, Realty and the IT stocks were the
main culprits, the Realty, CGS and other sectors bowed before the
Bear’s might. Reliance cushioned the fall to some extent. Volumes
were almost the same with A/D ratio negative at 1:2.5.
Since morning the Bulls were under pressure but panic Bull
liquidation was seen when the crucial support at 4375-4390 points
got breached. Caution had been advocated when the black trendline
on the RSI oscillator broke 2 days ago. With the support (4375)
breaching, range expansion which was long overdue tilted in the
Bears favour. Now the support in declines is at 4222-4249 points
(50% retracement of the rise from 3790-4649 and weekly s2).
Resistance at 4529 points has to be crossed to signal strength and
unless 4630 points is not sustained in closing, upside is capped.
Intraday, pivot is at 4324 points and resistance in rallies is at 4385,
4436 and points. Immediate support is at 4257 points, below that
4220-4230 points would come into play. Yesterday’s fall must have
sent shivers in the Bull’s spine. The Bears are tightening their grip;
it’s better to be with the tide or watch from the sidelines.
NIFTY Intra Week
Volatility 326 pts
S1 4389.70
S2 4249.75
R1 4642.65
R2 4722.55
mercilessly. The Bears were back with a bang knocking of 140
points. The relentless selling was seen from the opening bell till the
last minute of the day. Banking, Realty and the IT stocks were the
main culprits, the Realty, CGS and other sectors bowed before the
Bear’s might. Reliance cushioned the fall to some extent. Volumes
were almost the same with A/D ratio negative at 1:2.5.
Since morning the Bulls were under pressure but panic Bull
liquidation was seen when the crucial support at 4375-4390 points
got breached. Caution had been advocated when the black trendline
on the RSI oscillator broke 2 days ago. With the support (4375)
breaching, range expansion which was long overdue tilted in the
Bears favour. Now the support in declines is at 4222-4249 points
(50% retracement of the rise from 3790-4649 and weekly s2).
Resistance at 4529 points has to be crossed to signal strength and
unless 4630 points is not sustained in closing, upside is capped.
Intraday, pivot is at 4324 points and resistance in rallies is at 4385,
4436 and points. Immediate support is at 4257 points, below that
4220-4230 points would come into play. Yesterday’s fall must have
sent shivers in the Bull’s spine. The Bears are tightening their grip;
it’s better to be with the tide or watch from the sidelines.
NIFTY Intra Week
Volatility 326 pts
S1 4389.70
S2 4249.75
R1 4642.65
R2 4722.55
Short Term..........!
HCL Tech CMP: 222.25 Tgt: 214-207
The daily candlestick chart of HCL Tech shows a bearish candle. It is facing
resistance from the trendline in pink. Immediate support is at Rs.218 which if
breached can test Rs.214 and Rs.207 in a pessimistic scenario. One can exit in rallies
or High risk traders can sell around Rs.225-228 with a strict stop loss above Rs.235 in
close Holding period is 7-8 days.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
The daily candlestick chart of HCL Tech shows a bearish candle. It is facing
resistance from the trendline in pink. Immediate support is at Rs.218 which if
breached can test Rs.214 and Rs.207 in a pessimistic scenario. One can exit in rallies
or High risk traders can sell around Rs.225-228 with a strict stop loss above Rs.235 in
close Holding period is 7-8 days.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
S&P Nifty (4415.75 points) (+47.50 pts)
The Nifty closed a percent higher in yet another lackluster trading
session. It opened higher but later languished within 30-40 points.
Yesterday, the Teck stocks led from the front and with support
coming from the Reliance pack and CGS sector, the Indices rallied
in the end to close near the days high. Swift move in the Banking
stocks failed to sustain and gave away the gains. Volumes were
marginally higher and the A/D ratio was positive at 1.5:1.
A “hammer” formation is followed by a bullish candle. Now it has to
sustain above 4455-4460 points (preferably in close) to attempt the
4510 points. Support in decline is pegged at 4311-4321 points’ area
(38.2% retracement of the rise from 3790-4649 points).
Intraday, resistance in rallies is at 4460-4482 and 4519 points in an
optimistic scenario. Crucial support is at 4375-4390 points; a
decisive breach of it would turn the odds in the Bears favour.
Currently the Indices are oscillating in a narrow range with some
stock specific moves. Range expansion is likely in the coming days;
trade in the direction with the above mentioned levels.
NIFTY Intra Week
Volatility 326 pts
S1 4389.70
S2 4249.75
R1 4500.05
R2 4579.75
session. It opened higher but later languished within 30-40 points.
Yesterday, the Teck stocks led from the front and with support
coming from the Reliance pack and CGS sector, the Indices rallied
in the end to close near the days high. Swift move in the Banking
stocks failed to sustain and gave away the gains. Volumes were
marginally higher and the A/D ratio was positive at 1.5:1.
A “hammer” formation is followed by a bullish candle. Now it has to
sustain above 4455-4460 points (preferably in close) to attempt the
4510 points. Support in decline is pegged at 4311-4321 points’ area
(38.2% retracement of the rise from 3790-4649 points).
Intraday, resistance in rallies is at 4460-4482 and 4519 points in an
optimistic scenario. Crucial support is at 4375-4390 points; a
decisive breach of it would turn the odds in the Bears favour.
Currently the Indices are oscillating in a narrow range with some
stock specific moves. Range expansion is likely in the coming days;
trade in the direction with the above mentioned levels.
NIFTY Intra Week
Volatility 326 pts
S1 4389.70
S2 4249.75
R1 4500.05
R2 4579.75
Short Term............!
DLF Ltd Chance Buy 500 CA in dips CMP: 23.10
The daily candlestick chart of DLF shows a vertical decline Rs.576 to Rs.488. If it
fails to breach Rs.482-485 in close, we could witness a pullback. High risk traders
can buy preferably in declines around Rs.20-22 with a strict stop loss below Rs.15 in
close for a pullback to Rs.28-30 which if sustained then Rs.34 in the coming 3-4 days.
A breach of Rs.480 would negate the pullback.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
Omaxe Ltd Chance Buy CMP: 127.95 TGT: 135-138
The daily candlestick chart of Omaxe shows a bullish candle. Currently it is
oscillating in between Rs.114-144 and has retraced 61.8% of the recent rise. High
risk traders can buy preferably in declines around Rs.124-126 with a strict
stop loss below Rs.122 in close for a pullback to Rs.135-138 in the coming 7-8
trading sessions.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
The daily candlestick chart of DLF shows a vertical decline Rs.576 to Rs.488. If it
fails to breach Rs.482-485 in close, we could witness a pullback. High risk traders
can buy preferably in declines around Rs.20-22 with a strict stop loss below Rs.15 in
close for a pullback to Rs.28-30 which if sustained then Rs.34 in the coming 3-4 days.
A breach of Rs.480 would negate the pullback.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
Omaxe Ltd Chance Buy CMP: 127.95 TGT: 135-138
The daily candlestick chart of Omaxe shows a bullish candle. Currently it is
oscillating in between Rs.114-144 and has retraced 61.8% of the recent rise. High
risk traders can buy preferably in declines around Rs.124-126 with a strict
stop loss below Rs.122 in close for a pullback to Rs.135-138 in the coming 7-8
trading sessions.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
Short Term............!
DLF Ltd Chance Buy 500 CA in dips CMP: 23.10
The daily candlestick chart of DLF shows a vertical decline Rs.576 to Rs.488. If it
fails to breach Rs.482-485 in close, we could witness a pullback. High risk traders
can buy preferably in declines around Rs.20-22 with a strict stop loss below Rs.15 in
close for a pullback to Rs.28-30 which if sustained then Rs.34 in the coming 3-4 days.
A breach of Rs.480 would negate the pullback.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
Omaxe Ltd Chance Buy CMP: 127.95 TGT: 135-138
The daily candlestick chart of Omaxe shows a bullish candle. Currently it is
oscillating in between Rs.114-144 and has retraced 61.8% of the recent rise. High
risk traders can buy preferably in declines around Rs.124-126 with a strict
stop loss below Rs.122 in close for a pullback to Rs.135-138 in the coming 7-8
trading sessions.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
The daily candlestick chart of DLF shows a vertical decline Rs.576 to Rs.488. If it
fails to breach Rs.482-485 in close, we could witness a pullback. High risk traders
can buy preferably in declines around Rs.20-22 with a strict stop loss below Rs.15 in
close for a pullback to Rs.28-30 which if sustained then Rs.34 in the coming 3-4 days.
A breach of Rs.480 would negate the pullback.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
Omaxe Ltd Chance Buy CMP: 127.95 TGT: 135-138
The daily candlestick chart of Omaxe shows a bullish candle. Currently it is
oscillating in between Rs.114-144 and has retraced 61.8% of the recent rise. High
risk traders can buy preferably in declines around Rs.124-126 with a strict
stop loss below Rs.122 in close for a pullback to Rs.135-138 in the coming 7-8
trading sessions.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Friday, August 8, 2008
AGRI COMMODITY NEWS
· India Commodity trade up 82.7% in July 16 – July 31 – as per FMC data. (Source: Reuters)
· India has one of the fastest growing commodity futures market with a combined trade turnover 40.66 trillion rupees in the financial year 2007/08. (Source: Reuters)
· Cabinet defers Pawar’s plan on SUGAR decontrol. (IE)
· India to turn major SUGAR importer (as crop shrinks and demand rises). (FE)
· More reforms in remaining term, says FM. (FE)
· Area under most Kharif crops still lags behind. Revival of monsoon could see coverage improving. (BL)
· CACP submits MSP proposals for 6 Rabi crops. (FE)
· MAIZE, GROUNDNUT, COTTON sowing down. (FE)
· India may ship record SOYBEAN MEAL. (FE)
· OILSEED growers to get good rains (in Maharashtra and Gujarat). (FE)
· Global COTTON prices seen rising in volatile market. (BL)
· MMTC seeks 6000 tons RBD Palmolein. (BL)
AA : The Asian Age
BL : Business Line
BS : Business Standard
CM : Capital Market
ET : The Economic Times
FE : Financial Express
HT : The Hindustan Times
IE : The Indian Express
RS : Rashtriya Sahara
TOI : Times of India
· India has one of the fastest growing commodity futures market with a combined trade turnover 40.66 trillion rupees in the financial year 2007/08. (Source: Reuters)
· Cabinet defers Pawar’s plan on SUGAR decontrol. (IE)
· India to turn major SUGAR importer (as crop shrinks and demand rises). (FE)
· More reforms in remaining term, says FM. (FE)
· Area under most Kharif crops still lags behind. Revival of monsoon could see coverage improving. (BL)
· CACP submits MSP proposals for 6 Rabi crops. (FE)
· MAIZE, GROUNDNUT, COTTON sowing down. (FE)
· India may ship record SOYBEAN MEAL. (FE)
· OILSEED growers to get good rains (in Maharashtra and Gujarat). (FE)
· Global COTTON prices seen rising in volatile market. (BL)
· MMTC seeks 6000 tons RBD Palmolein. (BL)
AA : The Asian Age
BL : Business Line
BS : Business Standard
CM : Capital Market
ET : The Economic Times
FE : Financial Express
HT : The Hindustan Times
IE : The Indian Express
RS : Rashtriya Sahara
TOI : Times of India
Friday, August 1, 2008
Metals & Energy News Headlines
Metals & Energy News
Crude rallies more than $3 a barrel as Israel warns Iran. Business Line.
Crude may drop below $100; gold seen firm. Business Line.
Gold eases on firmer dollar. Business Line.
Platinum price forecasts cut. Business Line.
Rupee rises to 42.35.Business standard.
Copper, aluminium fall on slowing demand growth. Business Line.
Steel prices may go up by Rs.1500-3,000 a tonne. The financial express.
Chalco cuts spot alumina prices. Business Line.
Nickel declines on global cues. Business Line.
Oil min for resuming RBI oil bond scheme for retailers. The Economic Times.
Crude rallies more than $3 a barrel as Israel warns Iran. Business Line.
Crude may drop below $100; gold seen firm. Business Line.
Gold eases on firmer dollar. Business Line.
Platinum price forecasts cut. Business Line.
Rupee rises to 42.35.Business standard.
Copper, aluminium fall on slowing demand growth. Business Line.
Steel prices may go up by Rs.1500-3,000 a tonne. The financial express.
Chalco cuts spot alumina prices. Business Line.
Nickel declines on global cues. Business Line.
Oil min for resuming RBI oil bond scheme for retailers. The Economic Times.
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
S&P Nifty (4313.55 points) (+123.70 pts)
The crack developed in the earlier session was immediately filled up
with a gain of 3.5%. The Nifty opened strong and steadily moved up
to close almost at the days high. A stunning performance by the
Banking and Metal stocks equally supported by CGS, IT and
Reliance pack unfolded into a rally of 125 points (500 points on the
Sensex). The A/D ratio was positive at 2:1 while the volumes were
marginally higher.
Again the Nifty has come at a striking distance of the crucial
bottleneck area at 4355-4365 points. A sustained up move above it
(in close) could lead to recovery upto 4412 and 4454 points. However
the low at 4158 points should not be decisively broken; otherwise a
test of 4076 points is likely. As mentioned in the weekly report, an
“inside week” formation is likely.
Intraday, crucial support in declines is at 4277 points. If it sustains
above the hurdle at 4355-4365 points then resistance on the upside
is at 4394-4412 points. The markets will remain turbulent on the
last day of a long (5 week) July F&O expiry.
NIFTY Intra Week
Volatility 295 pts
S1 4192.85
S2 3899.00
R1 4543.25
R2 4659.00
with a gain of 3.5%. The Nifty opened strong and steadily moved up
to close almost at the days high. A stunning performance by the
Banking and Metal stocks equally supported by CGS, IT and
Reliance pack unfolded into a rally of 125 points (500 points on the
Sensex). The A/D ratio was positive at 2:1 while the volumes were
marginally higher.
Again the Nifty has come at a striking distance of the crucial
bottleneck area at 4355-4365 points. A sustained up move above it
(in close) could lead to recovery upto 4412 and 4454 points. However
the low at 4158 points should not be decisively broken; otherwise a
test of 4076 points is likely. As mentioned in the weekly report, an
“inside week” formation is likely.
Intraday, crucial support in declines is at 4277 points. If it sustains
above the hurdle at 4355-4365 points then resistance on the upside
is at 4394-4412 points. The markets will remain turbulent on the
last day of a long (5 week) July F&O expiry.
NIFTY Intra Week
Volatility 295 pts
S1 4192.85
S2 3899.00
R1 4543.25
R2 4659.00
Short Terms ...........!
Jindal Stain Chance Buy CMP: 131.70
Tgt: 136-140
The daily candlestick chart of Jindal Stain shows a bullish candle. It has closed
above the ascending triangle pattern on high volumes. Now the resistance line in
pink is at 136 which if decisively crossed can test Rs.140-142. High risk traders can
buy in declines around Rs.129-130 or a sustain move above Rs.132 with a strict stop
loss below Rs.126 in close for a pullback to Rs.136-140 in the coming 7-8 days. A
breach of Rs.123 would negate the bullishness.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
Cairn Ind Risky Buy Aug 240 CA CMP:
10.45 Tgt: 15-18
The daily candlestick chart of Cairn shows a bullish candle on high volumes. It has
closed above the sideways movement from Rs.215-230. High risk traders can buy
August 240CA in declines with a strict stop loss above Rs.5.85 in close for a
pullback to Rs.15-18-22 in the coming 7-8 trading sessions.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
Tgt: 136-140
The daily candlestick chart of Jindal Stain shows a bullish candle. It has closed
above the ascending triangle pattern on high volumes. Now the resistance line in
pink is at 136 which if decisively crossed can test Rs.140-142. High risk traders can
buy in declines around Rs.129-130 or a sustain move above Rs.132 with a strict stop
loss below Rs.126 in close for a pullback to Rs.136-140 in the coming 7-8 days. A
breach of Rs.123 would negate the bullishness.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
Cairn Ind Risky Buy Aug 240 CA CMP:
10.45 Tgt: 15-18
The daily candlestick chart of Cairn shows a bullish candle on high volumes. It has
closed above the sideways movement from Rs.215-230. High risk traders can buy
August 240CA in declines with a strict stop loss above Rs.5.85 in close for a
pullback to Rs.15-18-22 in the coming 7-8 trading sessions.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
Saturday, July 26, 2008
Metals & Energy News Headlines
Brace yourself with the Day’s News Headlines
Metals & Energy News
Food prices under threat as major parts of India suffer deficient rain. Business Standard
Sensex dips 502 pts on credit, earning woes. Business Standard
High rates may shrink Centre’s dividend kitty. The Financial Express
Steel prices come down by 6%, but government to keep up vigil. The Financial Express
India firm on services sector as part of WTO deal. The Financial Express
Oil majors’ profits to soar on record crude. Business Standard
India to lobby hard with China over nuclear deal ahead of IAEA. The
Financial Express
Forex reserves fall to $307 bn. The Financial Express
Distribution of subsidized edible oil to commence from July 28. The Financial Express
Chilli futures set to bounce back on sowing delay. The Financial Express
Tax dept to step up focus on B2B deals. Mint
Inflation will continue to haunt in second half too. Business Line
MCX to launch coriander seeds futures. Business Line
Spot trading begins in Steel Billets; trend weak on summer lull. Business Line
Spice exports up 23% in first 3 months of FY09. The Financial Express
Metals & Energy News
Food prices under threat as major parts of India suffer deficient rain. Business Standard
Sensex dips 502 pts on credit, earning woes. Business Standard
High rates may shrink Centre’s dividend kitty. The Financial Express
Steel prices come down by 6%, but government to keep up vigil. The Financial Express
India firm on services sector as part of WTO deal. The Financial Express
Oil majors’ profits to soar on record crude. Business Standard
India to lobby hard with China over nuclear deal ahead of IAEA. The
Financial Express
Forex reserves fall to $307 bn. The Financial Express
Distribution of subsidized edible oil to commence from July 28. The Financial Express
Chilli futures set to bounce back on sowing delay. The Financial Express
Tax dept to step up focus on B2B deals. Mint
Inflation will continue to haunt in second half too. Business Line
MCX to launch coriander seeds futures. Business Line
Spot trading begins in Steel Billets; trend weak on summer lull. Business Line
Spice exports up 23% in first 3 months of FY09. The Financial Express
Friday, July 25, 2008
AGRI COMMODITY NEWS
· MCX to launch CORIANDER SEEDS (DHANIA) FUTURES from Monday. Coriander commands a market share of Rs 1100 Cr. (FE)
· Growing interest, space for Corporate for AGRI COMMODITIES: Abhijit Sen. (FE)
· FOOD PRICES under threat as major parts of India suffer deficient rains. (BS)
· COMMEXES’ turnover up despite futures ban. (The 22 Exchanges register a 33% rise in Turnover). (FE)
· FOOD prices rise unabated (despite ban on exports and relaxation of import duties) (BS)
· INFLATION will continue to haunt in second- half too. KHARIF production facing prospect of setback. (BL)
· RAIN forecast in AP, Maharashtra. (The Hindu)
· July RAINFALL lowest in 5 years. (BL)
· Low rain may hit PEPPER, CARDAMOM. (FE)
· Maharashtra’s CANE areas face heat of monsoon failure. (BL)
· SUGAR production to exceed demand in 2008. (FE)
· SPICE exports up 23% in first 3 months of FY 09. (FE)
· India, Malaysia set to clash over RICE patent. (TOI)
· CHILLI futures set to bounce back on sowing delay. (FE)
· Distribution of subsidized EDIBLE OIL to commence from July 28.
(FE)
· Farmers told to shift from COTTON. (FE)
AA : The Asian Age
BL : Business Line
BS : Business Standard
ET : The Economic Times
FE : Financial Express
HT : The Hindustan Times
IE : The Indian Express
RS : Rashtriya Sahara
TO : Times of India
· Growing interest, space for Corporate for AGRI COMMODITIES: Abhijit Sen. (FE)
· FOOD PRICES under threat as major parts of India suffer deficient rains. (BS)
· COMMEXES’ turnover up despite futures ban. (The 22 Exchanges register a 33% rise in Turnover). (FE)
· FOOD prices rise unabated (despite ban on exports and relaxation of import duties) (BS)
· INFLATION will continue to haunt in second- half too. KHARIF production facing prospect of setback. (BL)
· RAIN forecast in AP, Maharashtra. (The Hindu)
· July RAINFALL lowest in 5 years. (BL)
· Low rain may hit PEPPER, CARDAMOM. (FE)
· Maharashtra’s CANE areas face heat of monsoon failure. (BL)
· SUGAR production to exceed demand in 2008. (FE)
· SPICE exports up 23% in first 3 months of FY 09. (FE)
· India, Malaysia set to clash over RICE patent. (TOI)
· CHILLI futures set to bounce back on sowing delay. (FE)
· Distribution of subsidized EDIBLE OIL to commence from July 28.
(FE)
· Farmers told to shift from COTTON. (FE)
AA : The Asian Age
BL : Business Line
BS : Business Standard
ET : The Economic Times
FE : Financial Express
HT : The Hindustan Times
IE : The Indian Express
RS : Rashtriya Sahara
TO : Times of India
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Nuclear deal – what the scientists say news
Defence scientists say that after the last tests they may no longer need to carry out further nuclear tests, should India choose to develop nuclear weapons, writes Rajiv Singh.
New Delhi: The UPA government has submitted a draft text of the safeguards agreement to the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) for clarification before formal ratification. The safeguards text, worked out with IAEA inspectors early this year, has been sent to the agency's 35-nation board in Vienna for approval.
The text reportedly envisages support for Indian efforts to develop a strategic reserve of nuclear fuel to guard against any disruption of supply over the lifetime of India's reactors.
The draft reportedly says that the Indian government may take corrective measures to ensure uninterrupted operation of its civilian nuclear reactors in the event of disruption of foreign fuel supplies.
The draft also says that the Indian government will ensure that none of the materials produced in the safeguarded facilities shall be used for the manufacture of any nuclear weapon, or to further any other military purpose. Such material, according to the Indian government, shall be used for peaceful purposes only and not for the manufacture of any nuclear explosive device.
These provisions are already beginning to raise eyebrows amongst the international community of 'experts'. They are pointing to a number of 'ambiguities', which they say need to be clarified by the UN watchdog body before ratification.
The draft, according to certain Washington-based think tanks, contains several points that "raise questions that board members need to get clarity on", according to a report in the International Herald Tribune. The report quotes Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association, as saying that the clause in the draft that says India "may take corrective measures to ensure uninterrupted operation of its civilian nuclear reactors in the event of disruption of foreign fuel supplies," could potentially restrict international monitoring of India's atomic programme.
Disruption of fuel supplies, he argues, would happen only if India were to resume testing of nuclear weapons. "Does that mean that India intends to withdraw from what are supposed to be permanent safeguards if it tests and other states decide to terminate fuel supplies?" asks Kimball. "If so, that is a big problem and the Indian government has not clarified what that means," he said.
Kimball conveniently omits to look at the other - the Indian - side of the picture, where if a consortium of states, or any member of such a consortium of states, which supply nuclear fuel around the world, should act in an arbitrary manner and impose sanctions on India for any reason. In such an eventuality, the Indian state would need provisions to safeguard its interests. This is not just a theoretical position that India may adopt for the sake of argument, because it is evident from recent history that there is nothing to prevent supplier nations, belonging to different political camps in a polarised world, from acting in a unilateral manner.
As has become evident over the previous decade or so, at times the UN umbrella appears to unify the nations of the planet only in a nominal way.
Kimball also finds it ''abnormal'' that the Indian government has omitted to submit a list of reactors that it intends to place under IAEA scrutiny. He reasons that though India's motives are not clear, it may be that "they're trying to preserve their options to put some reactors in or take some out" from IAEA scrutiny, depending on future bilateral nuclear cooperation
Reports over the years have suggested that intense negotiations, both internal, amongst the Indian scientific community, and external, with US interlocutors, have finalised the number and types of nuclear facilities that will be placed under international safeguards. Indeed, it was only once these details were finalised between Indian and US teams that the Indo-US deal moved forward to the stage where it is today. There really is no great 'secret' that the Indian government is holding close to its chest here.
Till the deal reaches a stage where such details come into play meaningfully, such details are matters of academic interest, which the Indian government very sensibly may not feel like advertising internationally - particularly to members of Washington-based think tanks.
Long time watchers of the Indian subcontinent, such as Ashley Tellis of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, also a supporter of the deal, is quoted as saying that fears of another Indian nuclear weapons test are theoretical and India risks too much by testing.
"With the investments that they have made in this deal, the incentives not to test actually grow," he said."
If India tests in the future, it will not be the first to test. It will test most likely in response to somebody else testing," added Tellis.
When the Buddha smiled
The debate, domestically at least, hinges around the nuclear deal ''impinging'' on our sovereignty in any way by preventing the country from testing nuclear weapons. Internationally, particularly amongst the non-proliferation lobby in the US, fears also revolve around the issue of testing and weaponisation. It may be useful to revisit the 1998 nuclear tests conducted by India for the clarifications that the scientific community had issued at that point of time.
Two years after the 1998 Pokharan nuclear explosions – the so-called 'Buddha smiles' tests - Dr R Chidambaram, then chairman, Atomic Energy Commission (AEC), confirmed some facts about the explosions in response to a persistent controversy regarding the supposed yields. He said that of the five nuclear devices exploded in Pokhran two years ago, "The 15 kiloton device was a weapon, which had been in the stockpile for several years. Others were weaponisable configurations." This then begged the question whether more tests were required to convert these "weaponisable configurations" into weapons.
For this we need to go back further in time to 1998, to a joint statement issued by then AEC chairman and the scientific adviser to the defence minister shortly after the nuclear tests. The statement said: "The three tests conducted on May 11, 1998, were with a fission device with a yield of about 12 kt, a thermonuclear device with a yield of about 43 kt and a sub-kilo tonne device. On May 13, 1998, two more sub-kilo tonne nuclear tests were carried out".
Further, the statement said, "The tests ... have provided critical data for the validation of our capability in the design of nuclear weapons of different yields for different delivery systems. These tests have significantly enhanced our capability in computer simulation of new designs and taken us to the stage of sub-critical experiments in the future, if considered necessary."
As should be evident from this last statement, the need for further testing is already significantly reduced - if not done away with altogether. In any case, if ''weaponisable configurations'' still need to be tested, the statement is unambiguous about the fact that India will conduct ''sub-critical experiments in the future, if necessary,'' as data from the tests had ''significantly enhanced'' capability in ''computer simulation of new designs.''
A Los Alamos laboratory text from September 2006 describes sub-critical testing in the following way: ''Sub-critical experiments examine the behaviour of plutonium as it is strongly shocked by forces produced by chemical high explosives. Subcritical experiments produce essential scientific data and technical information used to help maintain the safety and reliability of the nuclear weapons stockpile. The experiments are subcritical; that is, the quantity of plutonium used is below the so-called critical mass required for a self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction, thus, there is no nuclear explosion.''
If there is no nuclear explosion then a lot of debate about ''nuclear testing'', and how its absence, thanks to the provisions of the nuclear deal, may impinge on our ''national sovereignty'' dies a natural death.
Amongst the defence scientific community, the debate would still continue – whether India had reached a level of sophistication and confidence that its weaponisation programme could move ahead on the basis of computer simulations, and that ''weaponisable configurations'' would not require field testing.
But then, it stands to reason that the scientific community would have already conducted this debate a long time back. The conclusions they would have drawn would have allowed the political establishment to proceed with the Indo-US nuclear deal.
India's defence and civilian scientists have had a critical role to play in the formulation of the nuclear deal. Their reluctance was perhaps the biggest hurdle the government had to cross. Once they came on board the process of settling details with US interlocutors really took off.
These scientists do not have axes to grind, the way the various political parties do. In more ways than one the debate over the nuclear deal (not just with the US but with the entire global community) should be dominated by what these experts say rather than politicos hogging the airwaves on every TV news talk show.
New Delhi: The UPA government has submitted a draft text of the safeguards agreement to the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) for clarification before formal ratification. The safeguards text, worked out with IAEA inspectors early this year, has been sent to the agency's 35-nation board in Vienna for approval.
The text reportedly envisages support for Indian efforts to develop a strategic reserve of nuclear fuel to guard against any disruption of supply over the lifetime of India's reactors.
The draft reportedly says that the Indian government may take corrective measures to ensure uninterrupted operation of its civilian nuclear reactors in the event of disruption of foreign fuel supplies.
The draft also says that the Indian government will ensure that none of the materials produced in the safeguarded facilities shall be used for the manufacture of any nuclear weapon, or to further any other military purpose. Such material, according to the Indian government, shall be used for peaceful purposes only and not for the manufacture of any nuclear explosive device.
These provisions are already beginning to raise eyebrows amongst the international community of 'experts'. They are pointing to a number of 'ambiguities', which they say need to be clarified by the UN watchdog body before ratification.
The draft, according to certain Washington-based think tanks, contains several points that "raise questions that board members need to get clarity on", according to a report in the International Herald Tribune. The report quotes Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association, as saying that the clause in the draft that says India "may take corrective measures to ensure uninterrupted operation of its civilian nuclear reactors in the event of disruption of foreign fuel supplies," could potentially restrict international monitoring of India's atomic programme.
Disruption of fuel supplies, he argues, would happen only if India were to resume testing of nuclear weapons. "Does that mean that India intends to withdraw from what are supposed to be permanent safeguards if it tests and other states decide to terminate fuel supplies?" asks Kimball. "If so, that is a big problem and the Indian government has not clarified what that means," he said.
Kimball conveniently omits to look at the other - the Indian - side of the picture, where if a consortium of states, or any member of such a consortium of states, which supply nuclear fuel around the world, should act in an arbitrary manner and impose sanctions on India for any reason. In such an eventuality, the Indian state would need provisions to safeguard its interests. This is not just a theoretical position that India may adopt for the sake of argument, because it is evident from recent history that there is nothing to prevent supplier nations, belonging to different political camps in a polarised world, from acting in a unilateral manner.
As has become evident over the previous decade or so, at times the UN umbrella appears to unify the nations of the planet only in a nominal way.
Kimball also finds it ''abnormal'' that the Indian government has omitted to submit a list of reactors that it intends to place under IAEA scrutiny. He reasons that though India's motives are not clear, it may be that "they're trying to preserve their options to put some reactors in or take some out" from IAEA scrutiny, depending on future bilateral nuclear cooperation
Reports over the years have suggested that intense negotiations, both internal, amongst the Indian scientific community, and external, with US interlocutors, have finalised the number and types of nuclear facilities that will be placed under international safeguards. Indeed, it was only once these details were finalised between Indian and US teams that the Indo-US deal moved forward to the stage where it is today. There really is no great 'secret' that the Indian government is holding close to its chest here.
Till the deal reaches a stage where such details come into play meaningfully, such details are matters of academic interest, which the Indian government very sensibly may not feel like advertising internationally - particularly to members of Washington-based think tanks.
Long time watchers of the Indian subcontinent, such as Ashley Tellis of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, also a supporter of the deal, is quoted as saying that fears of another Indian nuclear weapons test are theoretical and India risks too much by testing.
"With the investments that they have made in this deal, the incentives not to test actually grow," he said."
If India tests in the future, it will not be the first to test. It will test most likely in response to somebody else testing," added Tellis.
When the Buddha smiled
The debate, domestically at least, hinges around the nuclear deal ''impinging'' on our sovereignty in any way by preventing the country from testing nuclear weapons. Internationally, particularly amongst the non-proliferation lobby in the US, fears also revolve around the issue of testing and weaponisation. It may be useful to revisit the 1998 nuclear tests conducted by India for the clarifications that the scientific community had issued at that point of time.
Two years after the 1998 Pokharan nuclear explosions – the so-called 'Buddha smiles' tests - Dr R Chidambaram, then chairman, Atomic Energy Commission (AEC), confirmed some facts about the explosions in response to a persistent controversy regarding the supposed yields. He said that of the five nuclear devices exploded in Pokhran two years ago, "The 15 kiloton device was a weapon, which had been in the stockpile for several years. Others were weaponisable configurations." This then begged the question whether more tests were required to convert these "weaponisable configurations" into weapons.
For this we need to go back further in time to 1998, to a joint statement issued by then AEC chairman and the scientific adviser to the defence minister shortly after the nuclear tests. The statement said: "The three tests conducted on May 11, 1998, were with a fission device with a yield of about 12 kt, a thermonuclear device with a yield of about 43 kt and a sub-kilo tonne device. On May 13, 1998, two more sub-kilo tonne nuclear tests were carried out".
Further, the statement said, "The tests ... have provided critical data for the validation of our capability in the design of nuclear weapons of different yields for different delivery systems. These tests have significantly enhanced our capability in computer simulation of new designs and taken us to the stage of sub-critical experiments in the future, if considered necessary."
As should be evident from this last statement, the need for further testing is already significantly reduced - if not done away with altogether. In any case, if ''weaponisable configurations'' still need to be tested, the statement is unambiguous about the fact that India will conduct ''sub-critical experiments in the future, if necessary,'' as data from the tests had ''significantly enhanced'' capability in ''computer simulation of new designs.''
A Los Alamos laboratory text from September 2006 describes sub-critical testing in the following way: ''Sub-critical experiments examine the behaviour of plutonium as it is strongly shocked by forces produced by chemical high explosives. Subcritical experiments produce essential scientific data and technical information used to help maintain the safety and reliability of the nuclear weapons stockpile. The experiments are subcritical; that is, the quantity of plutonium used is below the so-called critical mass required for a self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction, thus, there is no nuclear explosion.''
If there is no nuclear explosion then a lot of debate about ''nuclear testing'', and how its absence, thanks to the provisions of the nuclear deal, may impinge on our ''national sovereignty'' dies a natural death.
Amongst the defence scientific community, the debate would still continue – whether India had reached a level of sophistication and confidence that its weaponisation programme could move ahead on the basis of computer simulations, and that ''weaponisable configurations'' would not require field testing.
But then, it stands to reason that the scientific community would have already conducted this debate a long time back. The conclusions they would have drawn would have allowed the political establishment to proceed with the Indo-US nuclear deal.
India's defence and civilian scientists have had a critical role to play in the formulation of the nuclear deal. Their reluctance was perhaps the biggest hurdle the government had to cross. Once they came on board the process of settling details with US interlocutors really took off.
These scientists do not have axes to grind, the way the various political parties do. In more ways than one the debate over the nuclear deal (not just with the US but with the entire global community) should be dominated by what these experts say rather than politicos hogging the airwaves on every TV news talk show.
Sunday, July 20, 2008
Metals & Energy News
Brace yourself with the Day’s News Headlines
Metals & Energy News
*FMC’s norms to upgrade regional commexes soon. The financial Express
*India to grow at 8% amid global slowdown: IMF. The Economic Times
*Rupee rises to three week peak bond yields crash. The financial Express
*Gold slips on steady dollar. Business Line
*Low Inventories likely to keep crude prices high. Business line
*Corn Prices seen gaining on continuing demand. Business Line
*Easing crude prices bring relief to equity markets. The financial Express
*ECB norms for core sector to be relaxed further. The financial Express
*Aluminum at 3-week low as stocks rise. Business Line
*Cash reserve deadline to put more pressure on liquidity. The Economic Times
* Public Sector firms under austerity lens. Hindustan Times
Metals & Energy News
*FMC’s norms to upgrade regional commexes soon. The financial Express
*India to grow at 8% amid global slowdown: IMF. The Economic Times
*Rupee rises to three week peak bond yields crash. The financial Express
*Gold slips on steady dollar. Business Line
*Low Inventories likely to keep crude prices high. Business line
*Corn Prices seen gaining on continuing demand. Business Line
*Easing crude prices bring relief to equity markets. The financial Express
*ECB norms for core sector to be relaxed further. The financial Express
*Aluminum at 3-week low as stocks rise. Business Line
*Cash reserve deadline to put more pressure on liquidity. The Economic Times
* Public Sector firms under austerity lens. Hindustan Times
Friday, July 18, 2008
Weekly Market Recap
Continuing its trend, volatility remained the name of the
game this week. The BSE Sensex registered a gain of 1.2%
while the Nifty registered a gain of 1.1%. Foreign
Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been net sellers to the
tune of Rs. 1,203 crore, while the Mutual Funds have been
net sellers to the tune of Rs. 122 crore.
The wholesale price index inflation rose up to 11.91% for
the week ended July 05 as compared with 11.89% in the
previous week, mainly due to higher prices of some food
items and various petroleum products.
Sterlite Technologies Ltd, a leading global provider of power
transmission conductors, optical fibres and
telecommunication cables, has won four contracts with
leading infrastructure companies in Nigeria, Uganda,
Algeria and Bangladesh. The contract are worth US $ 1.55
crore. As per the requirement, the power conductor would
be supplied between July and November 2008.
BEML has received orders worth Rs. 34.50 crore from
African countries. It will supply 35 equipment worth Rs.
21.50 crore to Tunisia and 18 equipment valuing Rs. 13
crore to Malawi. The equipment ranges from small size
bull dozers to back hoes loaders, wheel loaders and
hydraulic excavators. Recently, it has also bagged mining
equipment orders worth Rs. 207 crore from Indonesia. To
increase its overseas market penetration, BEML has set up
offices in China, Malaysia and Brazil. Its current order book
stands at Rs. 4,000 crore.
TRF Ltd has received an order worth Rs 413.85 crore for
Design, Engineering, Manufacture, Supply, Erection, Testing
and Commissioning of Coal Handling Plant on Turn-key
basis, for the 2 X 600 MW Raghunathpur Power Project
(Phase-1) from Damodar Valley Corporation. The company
is engaged in the design, manufacture, supply, installation,
and commissioning of engineered equipment and systems
in the areas of handling, loading and unloading, processing,
stacking, reclaiming, and blending of bulk materials in India.
BGR Energy has secured perhaps the largest EPC contract
in the country, for the 2x600 MW Kalisindh Thermal Power
Project at Jhalawar from Rajasthan Rajya Vidyut Utpadan
Nigam Ltd.(" RRVUNL).The lump sum contract value is Rs.
4900.06 crore and includes design, engineering, supply of
Boiler,Steam Turbine Generator and complete Balance of
Plant equipment.
The rapid slide in the markets in the last six months once
again underlies the critical role of sentiments in the
investment world. Who would have imagined such a
pessimistic scenario in just six months in December? This
question gives us enough reason to be sanguine about the
ensuing future. For, to repeat the oft quoted cliché, bullish
markets are born in tunes of extreme despair, just as bearish
markets are during extreme euphoria. Finally, the patient
investor will make the profit. Here's raising a toast to her
and wishing that her tribe increases….
game this week. The BSE Sensex registered a gain of 1.2%
while the Nifty registered a gain of 1.1%. Foreign
Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been net sellers to the
tune of Rs. 1,203 crore, while the Mutual Funds have been
net sellers to the tune of Rs. 122 crore.
The wholesale price index inflation rose up to 11.91% for
the week ended July 05 as compared with 11.89% in the
previous week, mainly due to higher prices of some food
items and various petroleum products.
Sterlite Technologies Ltd, a leading global provider of power
transmission conductors, optical fibres and
telecommunication cables, has won four contracts with
leading infrastructure companies in Nigeria, Uganda,
Algeria and Bangladesh. The contract are worth US $ 1.55
crore. As per the requirement, the power conductor would
be supplied between July and November 2008.
BEML has received orders worth Rs. 34.50 crore from
African countries. It will supply 35 equipment worth Rs.
21.50 crore to Tunisia and 18 equipment valuing Rs. 13
crore to Malawi. The equipment ranges from small size
bull dozers to back hoes loaders, wheel loaders and
hydraulic excavators. Recently, it has also bagged mining
equipment orders worth Rs. 207 crore from Indonesia. To
increase its overseas market penetration, BEML has set up
offices in China, Malaysia and Brazil. Its current order book
stands at Rs. 4,000 crore.
TRF Ltd has received an order worth Rs 413.85 crore for
Design, Engineering, Manufacture, Supply, Erection, Testing
and Commissioning of Coal Handling Plant on Turn-key
basis, for the 2 X 600 MW Raghunathpur Power Project
(Phase-1) from Damodar Valley Corporation. The company
is engaged in the design, manufacture, supply, installation,
and commissioning of engineered equipment and systems
in the areas of handling, loading and unloading, processing,
stacking, reclaiming, and blending of bulk materials in India.
BGR Energy has secured perhaps the largest EPC contract
in the country, for the 2x600 MW Kalisindh Thermal Power
Project at Jhalawar from Rajasthan Rajya Vidyut Utpadan
Nigam Ltd.(" RRVUNL).The lump sum contract value is Rs.
4900.06 crore and includes design, engineering, supply of
Boiler,Steam Turbine Generator and complete Balance of
Plant equipment.
The rapid slide in the markets in the last six months once
again underlies the critical role of sentiments in the
investment world. Who would have imagined such a
pessimistic scenario in just six months in December? This
question gives us enough reason to be sanguine about the
ensuing future. For, to repeat the oft quoted cliché, bullish
markets are born in tunes of extreme despair, just as bearish
markets are during extreme euphoria. Finally, the patient
investor will make the profit. Here's raising a toast to her
and wishing that her tribe increases….
Friday, July 11, 2008
Metals & Energy News
* Industrial Growth slumps to 3.8% in May. Business Line
* Inflation rise continues touches 11.89%. Business Line
* Forex reserves down $3.4b. Business Line
* World economy stuck between recession and inflation. Business Line
* OECD indicators signal intensified slowdown. Business Line
* Investor interest in Uranium increasing. Business Line
* Gold hits $950 on firm oil. Business Line
* Crude rises $2 on supply threats. Business Line
* High aluminium stocks to cushion output cuts impact. Business Line
* Travel sector sees M&A on fast track. The Economic Times
* Govt to seek trust vote on July 22. Hindustan Times
* Easier security norms for ECBs to flow in capital. The Financial Express
* Double digit inflation to continue, says FM’s advisor. The Financial Express
* Inflation rise continues touches 11.89%. Business Line
* Forex reserves down $3.4b. Business Line
* World economy stuck between recession and inflation. Business Line
* OECD indicators signal intensified slowdown. Business Line
* Investor interest in Uranium increasing. Business Line
* Gold hits $950 on firm oil. Business Line
* Crude rises $2 on supply threats. Business Line
* High aluminium stocks to cushion output cuts impact. Business Line
* Travel sector sees M&A on fast track. The Economic Times
* Govt to seek trust vote on July 22. Hindustan Times
* Easier security norms for ECBs to flow in capital. The Financial Express
* Double digit inflation to continue, says FM’s advisor. The Financial Express
Weekly Market Recap
Bears were in no mood to loosen their grip on markets this week.The BSE Sensex registered a gain of 0.1% while the Nifty registereda gain of 0.8%. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were netbuyers to the tune of Rs. 94.5 crores while the Mutual Fundswere net buyers to the tune of Rs. 712.4 crore.
The wholesale price index inflation rose to 11.89% for the weekended June 28 as compared to 11.63% previous week, fuelledby high prices of all essential commodities.
Deceleration in the production of the petroleum refinery products,electricity and cement pulled down the growth in the six coreinfrastructure industries to 3.5% in May 2008 compared to 7.8%in May 2007. During April May 2008-09, the growth rate for thecore industries declined to 3.5% against 6.9% during the sameperiod last fiscal.
NTPC-Bhel Power Projects (NBP-PL), the 50-50 JV between NTPCand BHEL, is investing Rs. 6,000 crore in setting up a powerequipment manufacturing facility that will churn out boilers andturbines equipped to charge up 5,000 MW of Greenfield thermalcapacities by calendar 2013. It will undertake three broadcategories of businesses which will be taken up in three phases.In the first phase, it will strive for engineering, procurement andconstruction jobs for power plants in India and abroad while inthe second phase it will manufacture critical equipment for powerunits and in the final phase it will set up a power manufacturingplant. The plant will have a capacity to manufacture criticalcomponents - boilers and turbines- for power plants with anannual capacity of 5,000 mw of 2013.
Larsen and Toubro has bagged a Rs. 1,047.6 crore order from theIndian Railways for setting up a Cast Steel Wheel Manufacturingplant in Saran (Chhapra) District of Bihar. The plant whencommissioned will have the capacity to manufacture 1,00,000 CastSteel Railroad Wheels per annum. The scope of the work involvesengineering, procurement and construction of the complete plantincluding civil works, electrical installation, design, supply erectionand commissioning of the machinery and plant. The new plant willhelp the Indian railways to meet the huge shortage of wheels forrolling stocks due to rapid growth in the passenger and freighttraffic and will reduce dependence on imports.
Bharat Earth Movers (BEML) has bagged orders worth Rs.207crore for export of hydraulic excavators, rear dump trucks andbulldozers to Indonesia. One order for 93 equipments valued atRs. 158 crore is from Fajar Bumi Sakti, Indonesia, for deploymentat its coal mines. The second order for 34 equipments worthRs. 49 crore is from Singapore`s Far East Resources & Mining Co,for its coal mines in Indonesia. BEML plans to establish a salesoffice-cum-repair facility and spares depot at Balikpapan inIndonesia in three months, to provide 24x7 after-sales support toits customers.
Infosys Technologies have registered a net profit growth of20.67% to Rs 1,302 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2008 ascompared to Rs 1,079 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2007on consolidated basis. The total Income has increased by 23.47%to Rs. 4,971 crore vis-Ã -vis Rs. 4,026 crore previous year. On astandalone basis, the net profit after tax rose by 22.76% toRs. 1,262 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2008 vis-Ã -vis toRs. 1,028 crore for the previous quarter. Firstly it has uppedearnings guidance to Rs. 99.34-101.06. Secondly this was mainlyon account of depreciation in rupee and new assumption ofRs. 43 for the remaining three quarters. And lastly revenue guidancein dollar terms has remained same.
The wholesale price index inflation rose to 11.89% for the weekended June 28 as compared to 11.63% previous week, fuelledby high prices of all essential commodities.
Deceleration in the production of the petroleum refinery products,electricity and cement pulled down the growth in the six coreinfrastructure industries to 3.5% in May 2008 compared to 7.8%in May 2007. During April May 2008-09, the growth rate for thecore industries declined to 3.5% against 6.9% during the sameperiod last fiscal.
NTPC-Bhel Power Projects (NBP-PL), the 50-50 JV between NTPCand BHEL, is investing Rs. 6,000 crore in setting up a powerequipment manufacturing facility that will churn out boilers andturbines equipped to charge up 5,000 MW of Greenfield thermalcapacities by calendar 2013. It will undertake three broadcategories of businesses which will be taken up in three phases.In the first phase, it will strive for engineering, procurement andconstruction jobs for power plants in India and abroad while inthe second phase it will manufacture critical equipment for powerunits and in the final phase it will set up a power manufacturingplant. The plant will have a capacity to manufacture criticalcomponents - boilers and turbines- for power plants with anannual capacity of 5,000 mw of 2013.
Larsen and Toubro has bagged a Rs. 1,047.6 crore order from theIndian Railways for setting up a Cast Steel Wheel Manufacturingplant in Saran (Chhapra) District of Bihar. The plant whencommissioned will have the capacity to manufacture 1,00,000 CastSteel Railroad Wheels per annum. The scope of the work involvesengineering, procurement and construction of the complete plantincluding civil works, electrical installation, design, supply erectionand commissioning of the machinery and plant. The new plant willhelp the Indian railways to meet the huge shortage of wheels forrolling stocks due to rapid growth in the passenger and freighttraffic and will reduce dependence on imports.
Bharat Earth Movers (BEML) has bagged orders worth Rs.207crore for export of hydraulic excavators, rear dump trucks andbulldozers to Indonesia. One order for 93 equipments valued atRs. 158 crore is from Fajar Bumi Sakti, Indonesia, for deploymentat its coal mines. The second order for 34 equipments worthRs. 49 crore is from Singapore`s Far East Resources & Mining Co,for its coal mines in Indonesia. BEML plans to establish a salesoffice-cum-repair facility and spares depot at Balikpapan inIndonesia in three months, to provide 24x7 after-sales support toits customers.
Infosys Technologies have registered a net profit growth of20.67% to Rs 1,302 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2008 ascompared to Rs 1,079 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2007on consolidated basis. The total Income has increased by 23.47%to Rs. 4,971 crore vis-Ã -vis Rs. 4,026 crore previous year. On astandalone basis, the net profit after tax rose by 22.76% toRs. 1,262 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2008 vis-Ã -vis toRs. 1,028 crore for the previous quarter. Firstly it has uppedearnings guidance to Rs. 99.34-101.06. Secondly this was mainlyon account of depreciation in rupee and new assumption ofRs. 43 for the remaining three quarters. And lastly revenue guidancein dollar terms has remained same.
Friday, July 4, 2008
Metals & Energy News
Dear All,
Brace yourself with the Day’s News Headlines
Metals & Energy News
Investors see greater value in paper Gold. Business Line
Crude below $145 on Iran response. Business Line
July crude output may reach 27 year high. Business Line
Rising Inflation points to more rate increases. Mint
Bonds fall steepest in 8 years on price rise. Mint
Imports may rise on edible oil shortage. Mint
FMCG majors mull another round of price hikes. The Financial Express
Airlines cut down on routes to curtail losses. The Financial Express
Trouble mines deep into coal sector. The Financial Express
India is losing self-sufficiency in food produces. The Financial Express
Consumers in Punjab to shell out more for power. The Financial Express
India to seek NSG support on deal during G-8 meet. The Financial Express
G-8 to tackle inflation, concrete action elusive. The Financial Express
Trent to invest Rs.2,000 crore for 50 Star Bazaar hypermarkets. The
Financial Express
Foreign reserves fall by $691m to $311.8 bn. The Financial Express
Kingfisher may buy SpiceJet in cash deal. The Economic Times
Banks swap state govt. bonds at inflated price to book profit. The Economic
Times
India coffee prices increase on tight supply, global cues. The Financial Express
Cement Industry adds 46 mt capacity in three years. The Financial Express
Brace yourself with the Day’s News Headlines
Metals & Energy News
Investors see greater value in paper Gold. Business Line
Crude below $145 on Iran response. Business Line
July crude output may reach 27 year high. Business Line
Rising Inflation points to more rate increases. Mint
Bonds fall steepest in 8 years on price rise. Mint
Imports may rise on edible oil shortage. Mint
FMCG majors mull another round of price hikes. The Financial Express
Airlines cut down on routes to curtail losses. The Financial Express
Trouble mines deep into coal sector. The Financial Express
India is losing self-sufficiency in food produces. The Financial Express
Consumers in Punjab to shell out more for power. The Financial Express
India to seek NSG support on deal during G-8 meet. The Financial Express
G-8 to tackle inflation, concrete action elusive. The Financial Express
Trent to invest Rs.2,000 crore for 50 Star Bazaar hypermarkets. The
Financial Express
Foreign reserves fall by $691m to $311.8 bn. The Financial Express
Kingfisher may buy SpiceJet in cash deal. The Economic Times
Banks swap state govt. bonds at inflated price to book profit. The Economic
Times
India coffee prices increase on tight supply, global cues. The Financial Express
Cement Industry adds 46 mt capacity in three years. The Financial Express
Weekly Market Recap
The BSE Sensex tumbled 348 points this week, led by rising oil
prices, discouraging global cues and heavy selling pressure in
the frontliners. The Sensex and the Nifty are re-testing 13,000
and 3,900 levels, respectively. The BSE Sensex lost 2.5% while
the Nifty lost 2.9%. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net
sellers to the tune of Rs.799 crore whereas Mutual Funds were
net buyers to the tune of Rs. 396.7 crore. The wholesale price
index, inflation rose up to 11.63% for the week ended June 21
vis-Ã -vis 11.42% in the previous week
GMR Infrastructure Ltd has announced that Delhi International
Airport (P) Ltd (DIAL), a Subsidiary of the Company tasked with
the modernization of the Indira Gandhi International Airport has
carried out an extensive renovation programme to enhance the
efficiency of the terminal and also improve its aesthetics and
functionality. A number of steps have been taken In order to
reduce congestion. The departure ramp on the city side has been
widened to accommodate more vehicles. In the departure checkin
area, an additional 2500m space has been added to increase
the number of check in counters. The modern 3 level in line
baggage handling system will supposedly eliminate the entire
process of getting one's luggage X-rayed before check-in. The
number of immigration counters in the departure area has been
increased from 28 to 52 and the number of security lanes has
been increased to 22 from 10 with the objective of reducing the
queue for security clearance.
BHEL has bagged a Rs. 2,080 crore turnkey order from the Ministry
of Electricity in Syria, for setting up of two units of 200 mw each,
at the Tishreen thermal power plant extension. The order placed
by the public establishment of electricity for generation and
transmission PEEGT - scheduled for the execution in 33 months,
includes manufacturing, supplying and commissioning of main
plant and balance of plant (BOP) equipment besides controls
and instrumentation (C&I)
JSW Steel Ltd has posted a 22% growth In crude steel production
in Q1 FY 2008-09, including production of Salem works for the
corresponding period. The company has also achieved 18%
growth in the Rolled Long products segment. The production of
HR Coils and Plates was -12%, mainly due to the shutdown of the
Hot Strip Mill for 17 days for modernization during June 2008.
Punj Lloyd Ltd has been awarded a contract by GVK Power Ltd,
Hyderabad to work on the 2 X 270 MW Govindwal Sahib Coal
Fired Thermal Power Project in Taran District, Punjab for a value of
Rs 1,005 crores. The scope of the project involves the Balance of
Plant Work (BOP) and the entire civil work on the EPC basis. Work
on the project is expected to be completed by mid 2011.
On the international front, the European Central Bank hiked the
key-lending rate, which is the minimum bid rate on the main
refinancing operations, by 25 basis points to 4.25%, which is in
line with the expectations amid record high inflation and slowing
growth in the Eurozone. The central bank had maintained the
rate at a six-year high of 4% since June last year.
Crude oil hit 146 dollars a barrel for the first time on Thursday, as
traders reacted to Middle East tensions, falling US crude reserves
and the weak dollar. The Brent North Sea oil for August delivery,
surged to a life-time peak of 146.34 dollars.
The current soft phase on the bourses has lasted six monthsmaking
it the first one of its kind in over three years, thus testing
both, the mettle as well as the patience of the entire fraternity of
market participants. As things stand today, the picture looks quite
tough for the next year or so at least. In case the phase lasts that
long (or more), the verdict of winners and losers would, in our
guess, throw up an entirely different picture vis-Ã -vis the immediate
past. As Tennyson said in his famous poem-the old order
changeth, yielding place to the new….
prices, discouraging global cues and heavy selling pressure in
the frontliners. The Sensex and the Nifty are re-testing 13,000
and 3,900 levels, respectively. The BSE Sensex lost 2.5% while
the Nifty lost 2.9%. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net
sellers to the tune of Rs.799 crore whereas Mutual Funds were
net buyers to the tune of Rs. 396.7 crore. The wholesale price
index, inflation rose up to 11.63% for the week ended June 21
vis-Ã -vis 11.42% in the previous week
GMR Infrastructure Ltd has announced that Delhi International
Airport (P) Ltd (DIAL), a Subsidiary of the Company tasked with
the modernization of the Indira Gandhi International Airport has
carried out an extensive renovation programme to enhance the
efficiency of the terminal and also improve its aesthetics and
functionality. A number of steps have been taken In order to
reduce congestion. The departure ramp on the city side has been
widened to accommodate more vehicles. In the departure checkin
area, an additional 2500m space has been added to increase
the number of check in counters. The modern 3 level in line
baggage handling system will supposedly eliminate the entire
process of getting one's luggage X-rayed before check-in. The
number of immigration counters in the departure area has been
increased from 28 to 52 and the number of security lanes has
been increased to 22 from 10 with the objective of reducing the
queue for security clearance.
BHEL has bagged a Rs. 2,080 crore turnkey order from the Ministry
of Electricity in Syria, for setting up of two units of 200 mw each,
at the Tishreen thermal power plant extension. The order placed
by the public establishment of electricity for generation and
transmission PEEGT - scheduled for the execution in 33 months,
includes manufacturing, supplying and commissioning of main
plant and balance of plant (BOP) equipment besides controls
and instrumentation (C&I)
JSW Steel Ltd has posted a 22% growth In crude steel production
in Q1 FY 2008-09, including production of Salem works for the
corresponding period. The company has also achieved 18%
growth in the Rolled Long products segment. The production of
HR Coils and Plates was -12%, mainly due to the shutdown of the
Hot Strip Mill for 17 days for modernization during June 2008.
Punj Lloyd Ltd has been awarded a contract by GVK Power Ltd,
Hyderabad to work on the 2 X 270 MW Govindwal Sahib Coal
Fired Thermal Power Project in Taran District, Punjab for a value of
Rs 1,005 crores. The scope of the project involves the Balance of
Plant Work (BOP) and the entire civil work on the EPC basis. Work
on the project is expected to be completed by mid 2011.
On the international front, the European Central Bank hiked the
key-lending rate, which is the minimum bid rate on the main
refinancing operations, by 25 basis points to 4.25%, which is in
line with the expectations amid record high inflation and slowing
growth in the Eurozone. The central bank had maintained the
rate at a six-year high of 4% since June last year.
Crude oil hit 146 dollars a barrel for the first time on Thursday, as
traders reacted to Middle East tensions, falling US crude reserves
and the weak dollar. The Brent North Sea oil for August delivery,
surged to a life-time peak of 146.34 dollars.
The current soft phase on the bourses has lasted six monthsmaking
it the first one of its kind in over three years, thus testing
both, the mettle as well as the patience of the entire fraternity of
market participants. As things stand today, the picture looks quite
tough for the next year or so at least. In case the phase lasts that
long (or more), the verdict of winners and losers would, in our
guess, throw up an entirely different picture vis-Ã -vis the immediate
past. As Tennyson said in his famous poem-the old order
changeth, yielding place to the new….
Thursday, July 3, 2008
S&P Nifty (3925.75 points) (-167.60 pts)
The Bears were back with a bang wiping off all the previous day’sgains. Barring banking stocks all the Sectoral heavy weight stockstumbled in the morning session. Discount once again widened butsome short covering was seen in the Futures as it took supportaround its earlier lows (3811-3818). Reliance with the support ofbanking stocks (led by SBI) gave a pullback of around 100 points.Afternoon session was highly volatile as the battle intensified butonce again sharp selling in the last half hour pushed the Bulls onthe back foot. The A/D ratio was marginally negative and thevolumes were lower.As seen from the above graph, a newly drawn trendline in pinkshows that the Nifty is moving in a “wedge” type pattern. Themarkets have become turbulent as it is getting squeezed inside thewedge. Trendline support and resistance of it is at 3779 and 4052points respectively. Since the odds are even around 3854 points(61.8% retracement of 2307-6357), we are seeing the pullbacks. TheBears need to break 3824-3854 points range decisively for freshdown swing, otherwise the markets may consolidate at currentlevels.Intraday, the 3824-3842 points’ area is the crucial support in theNifty. Pivot is pegged at 3899 points and resistance is at 3985-4014points. Protect your positions appropriately as the markets arehighly volatile.
NIFTY Intra
WeekVolatility 308 pts
S3 3738.57
S4 3617.00
R1 4573.67
R2 4739.40
Alok Inds Chance Buy CMP: 36.90 Tgt: 40-42
The daily candlestick chart of Alok Inds shows a decline from Rs.70.40 to Rs.33.25.
For the past couple of sessions it is holding above Rs.33. The downside risk is
minimal for an anticipatory bounce. High risk traders can buy preferably in
declines around Rs.34-35 with a strict stop loss below Rs.32.50 in close for a
pullback up to Rs.40-42 in the next 7-8 trading sessions. For any fresh
upmove, Rs.40 has to be sustained while downtrend continues on a decisive
breach of Rs.32.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
=============================
India Cem Chance Buy CMP: 124.80 Tgt: 133-136The daily candlestick chart of India Cem shows a decline from Rs.169.90 toRs.115.65. For the past couple of sessions it is holding above Rs.115. The downsiderisk is minimal for an anticipatory bounce. High risk traders can buy preferablyin declines around Rs.120-122 with a strict stop loss below Rs.116 in close fora pullback up to Rs.133-136 in the next 7-8 trading sessions. For any freshupmove, Rs.133 has to be sustained while downtrend continues on adecisive breach of Rs.115.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
For the past couple of sessions it is holding above Rs.33. The downside risk is
minimal for an anticipatory bounce. High risk traders can buy preferably in
declines around Rs.34-35 with a strict stop loss below Rs.32.50 in close for a
pullback up to Rs.40-42 in the next 7-8 trading sessions. For any fresh
upmove, Rs.40 has to be sustained while downtrend continues on a decisive
breach of Rs.32.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
=============================
India Cem Chance Buy CMP: 124.80 Tgt: 133-136The daily candlestick chart of India Cem shows a decline from Rs.169.90 toRs.115.65. For the past couple of sessions it is holding above Rs.115. The downsiderisk is minimal for an anticipatory bounce. High risk traders can buy preferablyin declines around Rs.120-122 with a strict stop loss below Rs.116 in close fora pullback up to Rs.133-136 in the next 7-8 trading sessions. For any freshupmove, Rs.133 has to be sustained while downtrend continues on adecisive breach of Rs.115.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Important News.........!
***
Any rate any level any time is a good time to sell and believe me you will be so relieved and getting out of all the long positions short term or long term.
***
Only Selling Only Selling no other trade. reversal was such a good oppurtunity.
Any rate any level any time is a good time to sell and believe me you will be so relieved and getting out of all the long positions short term or long term.
***
Only Selling Only Selling no other trade. reversal was such a good oppurtunity.
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Indian shares close down 1.75 percent
MUMBAI (AFP) - Indian shares closed 1.75 percent lower on Wednesday, as investors locked in gains after US stocks fell on persistent inflation and housing data concerns, dealers said.
The benchmark Mumbai 30-share Sensex index fell 274.59 points to 15,422.31.
"Global clues remain uncertain. Investors preferred to book profits ahead of Friday's inflation data," said a dealer at brokerage ULJK Securities.
Dealers said medium-term domestic inflation concerns persisted after annual inflation in Asia's third-largest economy rose to 8.75 percent for the week ended May 31, the highest since February 2001.
The benchmark Mumbai 30-share Sensex index fell 274.59 points to 15,422.31.
"Global clues remain uncertain. Investors preferred to book profits ahead of Friday's inflation data," said a dealer at brokerage ULJK Securities.
Dealers said medium-term domestic inflation concerns persisted after annual inflation in Asia's third-largest economy rose to 8.75 percent for the week ended May 31, the highest since February 2001.
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Automobile Sector – May’08
YoY growth rate for May ’08
Two Wheelers: 7.9%
•Motorcycles: 9.2%
•Scooters: 5.7%
Passenger Vehicles:19.4%
•Passenger Cars: 18.0%
•Utility Vehicles: 25.0%
•Multi-Purpose Vehicles: 26.8%
M& HCV: 4.5%
•Goods Carrier: 6.2%
•Passenger Carrier: (4.0%)
•Mopeds: (0.7%)
LCV: 9.9%
•Goods Carrier: 11.4%
•Passenger Carrier: 2.7%
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
S&P Nifty (4523.60 points) (+73.80 pts)
S&P Nifty (4523.60 points) (+73.80 pts)
Yesterday, the Bulls must have heaved a sigh of relief. The Nifty
opened higher and then languished around 4500 points. Fresh Bear
raid in the afternoon tested the lows but got absorbed. Short
covering in BHEL, Banking and realty stocks helped the markets to
close at the day’s high. Reliance stood rock steady behind the Bulls.
Action was seen in some Midcap stocks which is reflected in the A/D
ratio (2:1) but the volumes remained almost the same.
As mentioned, since the odds are even, the small players are not
carrying forward their positions; hence short covering is emerging
at lower levels. Volumes are still lower, buying support is required
to threaten the Bears. As long as the Nifty trades below the
resistance line of the orange channel (4670), the Bears need not
worry. Short term trend is down until 4756 points is not decisively
crossed while 4390 points is the pivot.
Yesterday, the Nifty crossed the required high of 4498 points. Today
it has to hit a high above 4573 points (with a hurdle at 4554) for the
pullback to sustain. Intraday, 4511 points is the pivot while crucial
support is at 4480 and 4437 points. Again the Bears will try to
tighten their grip. A tussle is on; protect your positions
appropriately.
NIFTY Intra Week
Volatility 224 pts
S2 4395.00 S3 4271.00
R1 4968.00 R2 5074.00
Triveni Engg Buy in Dips CMP: 92.15 Tgt: 99-102
The daily candlestick chart of Triveni Engg shows a vertical decline from Rs.131.50 to
Rs.83.90. Short term trend is down with strong support around Rs.82. High risk
traders can buy in small quantities preferably in declines around Rs.88-90
with a strict stop loss below Rs.84 in close for a pullback to Rs.99-102 in the
next 7-8 trading sessions which if sustained on volumes can test Rs.108 in
the short term.
* It’s an anticipatory call Avoid gap openings and trade in cash.
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
S&P Nifty (4449.80 points) (-51.15 pts)
The Bear domination prevailed as the Indices closed in red for the
3rd day in succession. A gap down open coupled with fresh selling
pushed the Nifty to new yearly low of 4369 points. ONGC, IT and
FMCG stocks which were holding for the past couple days were led
the decline . Oscillation in Reliance kept the market players on
tender hooks but the Bulls heaved a sigh of relief as short covering
in the heavy weight stocks recovered 80 points from the low. In fact
the discount which had gone to more than 30 points came almost at
par at the closing bell. The A/D ratio was negative at 1:3 with no
significant change in the volumes.
Yesterday, both the weekly s2 (4395) in the Nifty and the March
BSE low (14677) were marginally breached but the Indices pulled
above it at close. Trendline of the “downward sloping channel” is
currently at 4698 points. A decisive close above 4756 points would
threaten the Bears, till then the trend is down. Support in declines
is pegged around 4326-4271 points region. If the Bulls fail to hit a
low below 4319 points we could see some more short covering in the
coming days.
Intraday, 4447 points is the pivot in the Nifty. The Bulls need a
high above 4498 points for the pullback to sustain. Crucial support
is pegged at 4390 points which can be treated as a pivot for the
remaining week. Though the Indices are closing negative, intraday
short covering is emerging at lower levels indicating the odds are
evenly poised from hereon. Keep stop loss and trade.
NIFTY Intra Week
Volatility 224 pts
S2 4395.00
S3 4271.00
R1 4613.00
R2 4756.00
3rd day in succession. A gap down open coupled with fresh selling
pushed the Nifty to new yearly low of 4369 points. ONGC, IT and
FMCG stocks which were holding for the past couple days were led
the decline . Oscillation in Reliance kept the market players on
tender hooks but the Bulls heaved a sigh of relief as short covering
in the heavy weight stocks recovered 80 points from the low. In fact
the discount which had gone to more than 30 points came almost at
par at the closing bell. The A/D ratio was negative at 1:3 with no
significant change in the volumes.
Yesterday, both the weekly s2 (4395) in the Nifty and the March
BSE low (14677) were marginally breached but the Indices pulled
above it at close. Trendline of the “downward sloping channel” is
currently at 4698 points. A decisive close above 4756 points would
threaten the Bears, till then the trend is down. Support in declines
is pegged around 4326-4271 points region. If the Bulls fail to hit a
low below 4319 points we could see some more short covering in the
coming days.
Intraday, 4447 points is the pivot in the Nifty. The Bulls need a
high above 4498 points for the pullback to sustain. Crucial support
is pegged at 4390 points which can be treated as a pivot for the
remaining week. Though the Indices are closing negative, intraday
short covering is emerging at lower levels indicating the odds are
evenly poised from hereon. Keep stop loss and trade.
NIFTY Intra Week
Volatility 224 pts
S2 4395.00
S3 4271.00
R1 4613.00
R2 4756.00
Short Term..........!
BRFL Chance Buy CMP: 337.35 Tgt: 348-350
The daily candlestick chart of BRFL shows a vertical decline from Rs.417 to Rs.321.It is taking support around Rs.322. High risk traders can buy in smallquantities preferably in declines around Rs.332-333 with a strict stop lossbelow Rs.322 in close for a pullback to Rs.348-350 in the next 5-6 tradingsessions which if sustained Rs.358 in the coming 2-3 weeks.* It’s an anticipatory call Avoid gap openings and trade in cash.
========================================================ACC Buy in Dips CMP: 616.40 Tgt: 648-655
The daily candlestick chart of ACC shows a decline from Rs.855 to Rs.590. Thedownward risk is limited for anticipatory pullback. High risk traders can buy insmall quantities in declines around Rs.605-608 with a strict stop loss belowRs.588 (preferably in close) for a pullback to Rs.648-655 in the next 5-6trading sessions which if sustained on volumes can test Rs.672 in the next 2-3 weeks.
* It’s an anticipatory call Avoid gap openings and trade in cash.
* ST - short term, MT- medium term
The daily candlestick chart of BRFL shows a vertical decline from Rs.417 to Rs.321.It is taking support around Rs.322. High risk traders can buy in smallquantities preferably in declines around Rs.332-333 with a strict stop lossbelow Rs.322 in close for a pullback to Rs.348-350 in the next 5-6 tradingsessions which if sustained Rs.358 in the coming 2-3 weeks.* It’s an anticipatory call Avoid gap openings and trade in cash.
========================================================ACC Buy in Dips CMP: 616.40 Tgt: 648-655
The daily candlestick chart of ACC shows a decline from Rs.855 to Rs.590. Thedownward risk is limited for anticipatory pullback. High risk traders can buy insmall quantities in declines around Rs.605-608 with a strict stop loss belowRs.588 (preferably in close) for a pullback to Rs.648-655 in the next 5-6trading sessions which if sustained on volumes can test Rs.672 in the next 2-3 weeks.
* It’s an anticipatory call Avoid gap openings and trade in cash.
* ST - short term, MT- medium term
Friday, June 6, 2008
Weekly Market Recap
Fear of a northward movement of the inflation figure, weak cues
from the European markets and the extant political uncertainty
proved troublesome for the Indian bourses this week. The BSE
Sensex registered a loss of 5.1% while the Nifty registered loss
of 5%. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers to the
tune of Rs. 1,047 crore and the Mutual Funds were net buyers to
the tune of Rs. 144.2 crore.
The whole price index rose to 8.24 for the week ended May 24 as
compared to 8.1% in the previous week.
The government hiked the petrol and the diesel prices by Rs.5
and Rs.3 a litre respectively, and that of LPG (cooking gas) by
Rs 50 a cylinder. However, kerosene prices have been left
unchanged. The Union Cabinet has utilized a slew of measures
to offset the effect of surging global oil prices that had put the
national oil companies under pressure. To obviate sharper hikes
the government has brought down the import duty on crude
and products by 5% making duty nil on crude, 2.5% on petrol
and diesel and 5% on jet fuel and other products.
Engineers India declared a considerable rise in standalone net
profit for the fourth quarter ended March 2008. During the
quarter, the profit of the company rose 33.30% to Rs 56.68
crore from Rs 42.52 crore on y-o-y basis. The company posted
earnings of Rs 10.09 per share during the quarter, registering
33.29% growth over previous year. Net sales for the quarter
jumped 49.24% to Rs 242.82 crore, while total income for the
quarter jumped 51.82% to Rs 287.77 crore.
GMR Industries is reportedly investing Rs 800 crore to set up sugar
mills in Karnataka. The company is in the process of setting up two
sugar mills at Ramdurg and Raibag in the Belgaum district of the
state. The company will have a combined capacity of 14,000 ton
crushed per day (TCD) by the end of 2009. It has also taken a semifinished
cooperative sugar factory at Ramdurg from the government
of Karnataka on a 25-year lease, which will have a 2,500 TCD
capacity. It has just completed the acquisition of Alagawadi
Bireshwar Sugars (P) which holds a license to set up and operate a
3,500 TCD sugar mill at Raibagh in Karnataka, for Rs. 17 crore.
DLF Group posted a net profit of Rs 7,812.03 crore for the year
ended Mar. 31, 2008 as compared to Rs 1,933.65 crore for the
year ended Mar. 31, 2007, marking a jump of 4.04 times. Total
income for the year rose 3.62 times to Rs 14,683.91 crore,
compared to Rs. 4,053.01 crore for the last year. On Standalone
basis, DLF reported a phenomenal rise in net profit at Rs 2,574.59
crore for the year ended Mar. 31, 2008 as compared to Rs 406.91
crore for the last year, registering a jump of 6.32 times.
Mercator lines has reportedly acquired a 2006 built double hull -
very large crude carrier (VLCC) of 299, 325 DWT. This is the third
VLCC under control of Mercator Lines, that already has a fleet of
29 vessels. Its net profit jumped 3 fold to Rs. 370 crore supported
by its growing fleet, buoyant shipping demand and firm freight
rates in the dry carrier segment. Its shipping revenue increased
30% to Rs. 1,455 crore.
Punj Llyod said that it has signed an agreement with Singapore
Technologies Kinetics (ST Kinetics) for the manufacture of defence
equipment. Under the agreement, ST Kinetics and Punj Lloyd
would be pooling their resources in the execution of supply
contracts for the Ministry of Defence. It has also bagged a license
for the manufacture of guns, rockets and missile artillery systems
and other equipment as well as Rs 649 crore contract for the
motor spirit quality upgradation project for the Indian Oil
Corporation (for its Barauni Refinery).
On the international front, oil prices maintained their streak of
remarkable intra day volatility, with a US$ 5.4 + rise on Thursday.
This degree of fluctuation indicates the level of entropy in the
crude market, as also the level of edginess vis-Ã -vis seemingly
minor triggers. Until a long term solution is found to tackle the
issues of supply, alternative energy sources and risk premia, it
seems that the world markets will have to live with such
fluctuations.
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
S&P Nifty (4585.60 points) (-130.30 pts)
It was a melt down at our bourses as the Indices lost around 3%.The Nifty opened lower but recovered the lost ground after theannouncement of the oil price hike. Sentiments turned weak on thevarious news flows and once again the market players pressed thepanic button. In a high volatile session, around 180 points wereknocked off from the days high. The A/D ratio was negative at 1:3and the volumes were also higher.Sharp pullback in the Oil stocks was brought to dust. The onlystandout of yesterday’s turmoil was ONGC (up 5%); otherwise thefall would have been terrible. The long term trendline failed torender any support which reflects the might behind the Bear attack.Now all eyes are on the panic lows 4448-4468 points. Immediateresistance should now be shifted to 4826 points while 4968 pointsremains crucial bottleneck.Intraday, the Bears require a low below 4521 points forcontinuation of the down trend. Pivot is pegged at 4611 points whileresistance is at 4658-4702 points. Trend is down; high risk traderswho wish to go longs in declines for an anticipatory pullback canbuy “call-options” (Nifty4600ce, RIL 2400ca) as the risk isquantified; otherwise stay away till the market settles.
NIFTY Intra Week Volatility 224 pts
S2 4702.35
S3 4571.05
R1 4968.00
R2 5074.00
NIFTY Intra Week Volatility 224 pts
S2 4702.35
S3 4571.05
R1 4968.00
R2 5074.00
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
S&P Nifty (4715.90 points) (-23.70 pts)
The Nifty opened lower and drifted down to hit the daily S2 at 4636points. When the second attempt failed to breach it (4636), someshort covering began. Reliance took the initiative which was wellsupported in rotation by the other heavy weight stocks. In theafternoon session, the pullback turned out to be a rally of around 90points as the intraday shorts had to give up in the end. Volumeswere marginally higher while the A/D ratio was negative at 1:2.In the recovery the Nifty almost filled up the negative opening gap.Crucial support from the trendline support in blue is pegged at 4631points. Immediate resistance is at 4819 points and as long as ittrades below 4968 points treat the rallies as pullbacks only.Resistance line of the upward sloping channel (5010) needs to bedecisively crossed for fresh up momentum.Intraday, crucial support is pegged in the 4680-4690 points’ areawhile resistance at 4758 points if crossed can test 4787-4802 pointsin an optimistic scenario. It has made a “Hammer”, but the Bullsrequire a high of 4826 points in a day or two for the recovery tocontinue, else the markets may consolidate first. Banking and Oilstocks need to gear up for the survival of the Bulls. As the market isvolatile, traders should keep on churning their positions or holdwith trailing stop loss.
NIFTY Intra WeekVolatility 224 pts
S2 4702.35
S3 4571.05
R1 4968.00
R2 5074.00
NIFTY Intra WeekVolatility 224 pts
S2 4702.35
S3 4571.05
R1 4968.00
R2 5074.00
Short Terms.........!
IDFC Chance Buy
CMP: 138.65
Tgt: 148-152
The daily candlestick chart of IDFC shows a vertical decline from Rs.182.55 toRs.133.20. It has revisited the support around Rs.134. It has made a Hammer andvolumes have picked up. High risk traders can buy in small quantitiespreferably in declines around Rs.135 with a strict stop loss below Rs.129.80in close for a pullback to Rs.148-152 in the next 7-8 trading sessions.
* It’s an anticipatory call Avoid gap openings and trade in cash.
==========================================================Tata Motors Buy for
CMP: 570.30
Tgt: 592-600
The daily candlestick chart of Tata Motors shows a decline from Rs.695 to Rs.556.The downward risk is limited for anticipatory pullback. High risk traders can buyin small quantities in declines around Rs.560-565 with a strict stop lossbelow Rs.552 (preferably in close) for a pullback to Rs.592-600 in the next 5-6trading sessions which if sustained on volumes can test Rs.614 in the next 2-3 weeks.
* It’s an anticipatory call Avoid gap openings and trade in cash.
========================================================
CMP: 138.65
Tgt: 148-152
The daily candlestick chart of IDFC shows a vertical decline from Rs.182.55 toRs.133.20. It has revisited the support around Rs.134. It has made a Hammer andvolumes have picked up. High risk traders can buy in small quantitiespreferably in declines around Rs.135 with a strict stop loss below Rs.129.80in close for a pullback to Rs.148-152 in the next 7-8 trading sessions.
* It’s an anticipatory call Avoid gap openings and trade in cash.
==========================================================Tata Motors Buy for
CMP: 570.30
Tgt: 592-600
The daily candlestick chart of Tata Motors shows a decline from Rs.695 to Rs.556.The downward risk is limited for anticipatory pullback. High risk traders can buyin small quantities in declines around Rs.560-565 with a strict stop lossbelow Rs.552 (preferably in close) for a pullback to Rs.592-600 in the next 5-6trading sessions which if sustained on volumes can test Rs.614 in the next 2-3 weeks.
* It’s an anticipatory call Avoid gap openings and trade in cash.
========================================================
Monday, June 2, 2008
S&P Nifty (4739.60 points) (-130.50 pts)
The brutal Bull massacre resumed after the Friday’s break. Nomercy was shown as the Nifty lost almost 200 points from the dayshigh. The markets opened higher on the backdrop of the IT andbanking stocks but it were the Oil & Gas sector that led the turmoil.Banking stocks, Reliance Pack, ONGC and BHEL were the culpritsof the 2.5% debacle. The A/D ratio was negative at 1:3 while thevolumes were marginally lower.There was no respite once the Nifty broke below 4870 points. Theintensity of the Bull liquidation coupled with selling pressure wasso high that it ripped off all the intraday supports. Trendline of the“downward sloping channel” in blue was also marginally breached.The Nifty has to close above 4734 points in the coming sessions toshow some semblance but as long as the 4916-4932 points’ area isnot decisively crossed upside appears to be capped. On thedownside, support is pegged at 4681 (monthly s1) and 4613 points(trendline joining 4002 and 4468)As mentioned earlier, unless 5040 points is not crossed in closingthe short term continues to remain down. Intraday, pivot at 4768points needs to be sustained for any upside. Resistance is pegged at4787 and at 4826 points. A low below 4704 points can test 4665points in a couple of days. Market is expected to remain swinging,small players should refrain and wait till the volatility cools off.
NIFTY Intra WeekVolatility 224 pts
S2 4702.35
S3 4571.05
R1 4968.00
R2 5074.00
==============================================
Short Term........!
Crompton Greav Buy in Dips Only
CMP: 235.60
Tgt: 248-256
The daily candlestick chart of Crompton shows that it is in a short term downtrend.It is pecking the resistance line in pink. Immediate support is at Rs.224. High risktraders can buy in small quantities in declines around Rs.228-230 with astrict stop loss below Rs.222 in close for a pullback to Rs.248-256 in the next7-8 trading sessions .
* It’s an anticipatory call Avoid gap openings and trade in cash.
NIFTY Intra WeekVolatility 224 pts
S2 4702.35
S3 4571.05
R1 4968.00
R2 5074.00
==============================================
Short Term........!
Crompton Greav Buy in Dips Only
CMP: 235.60
Tgt: 248-256
The daily candlestick chart of Crompton shows that it is in a short term downtrend.It is pecking the resistance line in pink. Immediate support is at Rs.224. High risktraders can buy in small quantities in declines around Rs.228-230 with astrict stop loss below Rs.222 in close for a pullback to Rs.248-256 in the next7-8 trading sessions .
* It’s an anticipatory call Avoid gap openings and trade in cash.
Sunday, June 1, 2008
Monthly Technicals Report June 2008 & Weekly TTR
S&P Nifty (4871.10 points)
Again the month of May (even years) saw the markets close deep inred. The Bulls failed to overcome the “May fear” losing around 400points in the last fortnight. Market sentiment appeared weak onrise in inflation and crude prices. Among the Sectoral Indices, Auto,Banking, Oil & Gas, Realty and PSU stocks pulled the Indices downwhile the Metal stocks rallied. The underdogs Healthcare, IT andTeck sectors were the star performers (closing 5% above). In the endthe Nifty lost around 300 points while the volumes remained almostthe same.Now in the Nifty, the 78.6% retracement of the rise from 4628-5298points is at 4772 points. Trend line support in blue is pegged at4747 points. Hence the 4750-4775 points’ area is likely to attractsome short covering. Follow stop losses and trade. Unless and untilthe 5040 points is not decisively crossed, the short term trend isdown and for fresh up momentum, trendline resistance in pink(daily chart) at 5262 points needs to be sustained.Currently it is a traders market with stock specific movement. Noone is keeping commitment from a long term scenario. The Nifty isoscillating, while volatility of around 400-500 points is seen for thepast two months. Pullbacks are unable to get converted into rallies.As long as 5078 points is not crossed in close, markets will remainunder pressure with crucial support in declines pegged at 4681points. The Index Heavy weight stocks have to move up in tandemwhich will motivate the Midcap stocks to join and in turn could seea broad based rally on high volumes.
NIFTY Intra WeekVolatility 224 pts
S1 4785.00 S2 4702.35
R1 4968.00 R2 5074.00
===============================================================
Trace & Track Report
Financial Tech (1736.15)The daily chart of Financial Tech shows thatit is moving sideways after a vertical fall.There is a bullish gap at 1680 which if holdswe could see a pullback. Resistance is atRs.1788 which needs to be sustained for freshup move. Immediate support is at Rs.1680while a breach of Rs.1571 would negate thebelow targets. Track in dips
Resistance: 1788, 1824, 1935.
Support : 1680, 1600, 1570.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Wockhardt (297.60)
The daily chart of Wockhardt shows asideways move for the past two months. It istaking support at Rs.286 which if holds cantest Rs.310-315 in an immediate scenariowhich if sustained in close can test Rs.334 inthe medium term for which support is atRs.278.
Resistance: 315, 322, 336.
Support : 285, 278, 264.
Again the month of May (even years) saw the markets close deep inred. The Bulls failed to overcome the “May fear” losing around 400points in the last fortnight. Market sentiment appeared weak onrise in inflation and crude prices. Among the Sectoral Indices, Auto,Banking, Oil & Gas, Realty and PSU stocks pulled the Indices downwhile the Metal stocks rallied. The underdogs Healthcare, IT andTeck sectors were the star performers (closing 5% above). In the endthe Nifty lost around 300 points while the volumes remained almostthe same.Now in the Nifty, the 78.6% retracement of the rise from 4628-5298points is at 4772 points. Trend line support in blue is pegged at4747 points. Hence the 4750-4775 points’ area is likely to attractsome short covering. Follow stop losses and trade. Unless and untilthe 5040 points is not decisively crossed, the short term trend isdown and for fresh up momentum, trendline resistance in pink(daily chart) at 5262 points needs to be sustained.Currently it is a traders market with stock specific movement. Noone is keeping commitment from a long term scenario. The Nifty isoscillating, while volatility of around 400-500 points is seen for thepast two months. Pullbacks are unable to get converted into rallies.As long as 5078 points is not crossed in close, markets will remainunder pressure with crucial support in declines pegged at 4681points. The Index Heavy weight stocks have to move up in tandemwhich will motivate the Midcap stocks to join and in turn could seea broad based rally on high volumes.
NIFTY Intra WeekVolatility 224 pts
S1 4785.00 S2 4702.35
R1 4968.00 R2 5074.00
===============================================================
Trace & Track Report
Financial Tech (1736.15)The daily chart of Financial Tech shows thatit is moving sideways after a vertical fall.There is a bullish gap at 1680 which if holdswe could see a pullback. Resistance is atRs.1788 which needs to be sustained for freshup move. Immediate support is at Rs.1680while a breach of Rs.1571 would negate thebelow targets. Track in dips
Resistance: 1788, 1824, 1935.
Support : 1680, 1600, 1570.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Wockhardt (297.60)
The daily chart of Wockhardt shows asideways move for the past two months. It istaking support at Rs.286 which if holds cantest Rs.310-315 in an immediate scenariowhich if sustained in close can test Rs.334 inthe medium term for which support is atRs.278.
Resistance: 315, 322, 336.
Support : 285, 278, 264.
Short Term.........!
Allahabad BK Buy
CMP: 80.55
Tgt: 95-98
The monthly candlestick chart of Allahabad Bank shows a sharp decline from
Rs.143.70 to Rs.70.65. The short term oscillators have reached oversold zone and
hence a chance of a pullback. One can gradually buy at current levels as well as
in declines at Rs.74-76 with a strict stop loss below Rs.71 in close for a target
of Rs.95-98 which if sustained Rs.107 in the coming 4-6 weeks.
* Avoid gap openings and volumes are less hence trade in small quantity.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GNFC Buy
CMP: 152.65
Tgt: 168 & 182
The daily candlestick chart of GNFC shows that it is oscillating in an upward sloping
channel in blue. Support is pegged at Rs.145 which if holds can test Rs.168 and
Rs.182. One can gradually buy at current levels as well as in declines at
Rs.145 with a strict stop loss below Rs.138 in close for a target of Rs.168
which if sustained Rs.182-188 in the coming 6-8 weeks.
* Avoid gap openings and volumes are less hence trade in small quantity.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CMP: 80.55
Tgt: 95-98
The monthly candlestick chart of Allahabad Bank shows a sharp decline from
Rs.143.70 to Rs.70.65. The short term oscillators have reached oversold zone and
hence a chance of a pullback. One can gradually buy at current levels as well as
in declines at Rs.74-76 with a strict stop loss below Rs.71 in close for a target
of Rs.95-98 which if sustained Rs.107 in the coming 4-6 weeks.
* Avoid gap openings and volumes are less hence trade in small quantity.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GNFC Buy
CMP: 152.65
Tgt: 168 & 182
The daily candlestick chart of GNFC shows that it is oscillating in an upward sloping
channel in blue. Support is pegged at Rs.145 which if holds can test Rs.168 and
Rs.182. One can gradually buy at current levels as well as in declines at
Rs.145 with a strict stop loss below Rs.138 in close for a target of Rs.168
which if sustained Rs.182-188 in the coming 6-8 weeks.
* Avoid gap openings and volumes are less hence trade in small quantity.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
S&P Nifty (5104.95 points) (-52.75 pts)
The Bears dominated the entire day with a gap down openfavouring them. The Nifty hovered around the 5100 points, butwhen that got breached, intraday selling was seen dragging theNifty to a low of 5072 points. The Metal and Power-Energy stocksshowed strength but profit taking was seen in Banking, CGS andOil & Gas sector. Volumes were lower than previous session whilethe A/D ratio was negative at 1:2.It was mentioned in the Friday’s report that the Bulls may takebreather at higher levels and that 5165-5176 is the bottleneck areain the Nifty. Weekly S1 is pegged at 5019 points; a breach of it cantest the crucial trendline support in green (currently pegged at 4948points). As long as it holds the bias is up. If the Nifty sustains above5175 points we could see it testing 5214 points.Intraday, the Nifty has to sustain above 5130 points while to negatebearishness it has to hit a high of 5185 points. Pivot is pegged at5102 points with immediate support at 5065 points. A low below5040 points would indicate more selling pressure. Small investorsshould keep churning positions while High risk traders shouldprotect their positions.
NIFTY Intra WeekVolatility 275 pts
S1 5019.10
S2 4883.17
R1 5289.35
R2 5355.18
NIFTY Intra WeekVolatility 275 pts
S1 5019.10
S2 4883.17
R1 5289.35
R2 5355.18
Tata Steel Protect longs Buy 900 PA in dips
The daily candlestick chart of Tata Steel shows that it is in uptrend. The rally isgetting exhausted or is likely to take a pause as the oscillators are exhibitingnegative divergences. Those holding longs in Tisco can hedge by buying 900PA while high risk traders should follow a strict stop loss below Rs.10.50(preferably in close). Holding period is 4-5 days.
* Avoid gap openings and trade in cash in small quantities.
* ST - short term, MT- medium term
* Avoid gap openings and trade in cash in small quantities.
* ST - short term, MT- medium term
Voltas Buy in dips Only CMP: 157.65 Tgt: 168 & 175
The daily candlestick chart of Tata Steel shows that it is in uptrend. The rally is
getting exhausted or is likely to take a pause as the oscillators are exhibiting
negative divergences. Those holding longs in Tisco can hedge by buying 900
PA while high risk traders should follow a strict stop loss below Rs.10.50
(preferably in close). Holding period is 4-5 days.
* Avoid gap openings and trade in cash in small quantities.
* ST - short term, MT- medium term
getting exhausted or is likely to take a pause as the oscillators are exhibiting
negative divergences. Those holding longs in Tisco can hedge by buying 900
PA while high risk traders should follow a strict stop loss below Rs.10.50
(preferably in close). Holding period is 4-5 days.
* Avoid gap openings and trade in cash in small quantities.
* ST - short term, MT- medium term
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
S&P Nifty (4957.80 points) (-54.85 pts)
The Nifty opened higher and continued to move up from where ithad left before. Till the mid-session it was steadily trading around5045-5050 points. Later, the Bears became active when intradayrallies failed to cross the daily R1 at 5071 points. More than 100points were knocked off from the days high in the last hour of trade.Heavy weights were slaughtered as the Bears were on a rampage.In the end the Nifty closed a percent lower on higher volumes. TheA/D ratio was marginally positive.Profit taking which began around 5060 points (38.2% retracementof the fall from 5298-4913) soon turned out to be a decent sell off.The Nifty is yet again near the crucial supports at 4915 and 4883points (weekly s1). Trend line support in green is pegged at 4935points. On the upside, the 5085-5115 points is the bottleneck areaand for a sustained up move, trendline in pink needs to bedecisively crossed.Intraday, 4988 points is the pivot in the Nifty. Immediate support ispegged at 4912 points where as the bulls cannot afford a low below4889 points. Resistance in rallies is pegged at 5035 points which ifsustained, we could see further up move. Once again the volatility isacting as a double edged sword. It’s an acid test for the Bulls; theyneed to act quickly before the Bears strangulate them.
NIFTY Intra
WeekVolatility 271 pts
S1 4883.17 S2 4758.88
R1 5118.55 R2 5284.00
NIFTY Intra
WeekVolatility 271 pts
S1 4883.17 S2 4758.88
R1 5118.55 R2 5284.00
LIC Hsg Chance Buy in dips
CMP: 341.55 Tgt: 358-36The daily candlestick chart of LIC Housing Finance shows that it is correcting after abreakout above Rs.324. It has touched the support line in blue. The mechanicaloscillators are above the median line indicating that the bias is still up. High risktraders can gradually buy in declines around Rs.334-337 with a strict stoploss below Rs.324 (preferably in close) for a pullback to Rs.358-365 which ifsustained on volumes can test Rs.390 (stop 872) in the next 3-4 weeks.
* Avoid gap openings and trade in cash in small quantities.
=======================================================
UTV Soft Buy for ST CMP: 794.50 Tgt: 832-848The daily candlestick chart of UTV shows that it is moving in a broad trianglepattern (though not classical) . It appears to be consolidating before a directionalmove. One can gradually buy in small quantity at Rs.788 and in declinesaround Rs.776 with a strict stop loss below Rs.759 (preferably in close) for atarget of Rs.358-365 in the coming 7-8 trading sessions. A decisive breakoutin close above Rs.852 gives a target of Rs.902-936 in the next 4-5 weeks.
* It is an anticipatory buy and trade in small quantities.
* ST - short term, MT- medium term
* Avoid gap openings and trade in cash in small quantities.
=======================================================
UTV Soft Buy for ST CMP: 794.50 Tgt: 832-848The daily candlestick chart of UTV shows that it is moving in a broad trianglepattern (though not classical) . It appears to be consolidating before a directionalmove. One can gradually buy in small quantity at Rs.788 and in declinesaround Rs.776 with a strict stop loss below Rs.759 (preferably in close) for atarget of Rs.358-365 in the coming 7-8 trading sessions. A decisive breakoutin close above Rs.852 gives a target of Rs.902-936 in the next 4-5 weeks.
* It is an anticipatory buy and trade in small quantities.
* ST - short term, MT- medium term
Thursday, May 8, 2008
S&P Nifty (5081.70 points) (-53.80 pts)
The markets remained in the negative territory through out the day
losing a percent at close. It opened weak and later oscillated in a
narrow range. Banking stocks along with ITC and Larsen led the
decline. Reliance was steady while Tisco rallied which helped in
cushioning the fall. Volumes were lower while the A/D ratio was
negative at 1:2.
Yesterday, the Nifty marginally breached the crucial intraday
support at 5066-5073 points. The Bulls failed to hit the asking rate
of 5161 points; for today it has shifted to 5130 points. Immediate
resistance is at 5213 points while the 38.2% retracement of the
recent rise from 4628 points (5015) is the support. A decisive breach
of it could see it drifting further testing the green trend line.
Intraday, crucial support in the Nifty is at 5032-5045 points. Pivot
is pegged at 5197 points which if sustained then next resistance is
at 5130 points. For the past couple of sessions the Bears are
tightening their grip as the Bulls take a breather. The onus is on
the Bulls to come out of this situation. Markets are likely to remain
swinging and volatile.
NIFTY Intra Week
Volatility 283 pts
S1 5153.68
S2 5006.56
R1 5324.98
R2 5412.77
losing a percent at close. It opened weak and later oscillated in a
narrow range. Banking stocks along with ITC and Larsen led the
decline. Reliance was steady while Tisco rallied which helped in
cushioning the fall. Volumes were lower while the A/D ratio was
negative at 1:2.
Yesterday, the Nifty marginally breached the crucial intraday
support at 5066-5073 points. The Bulls failed to hit the asking rate
of 5161 points; for today it has shifted to 5130 points. Immediate
resistance is at 5213 points while the 38.2% retracement of the
recent rise from 4628 points (5015) is the support. A decisive breach
of it could see it drifting further testing the green trend line.
Intraday, crucial support in the Nifty is at 5032-5045 points. Pivot
is pegged at 5197 points which if sustained then next resistance is
at 5130 points. For the past couple of sessions the Bears are
tightening their grip as the Bulls take a breather. The onus is on
the Bulls to come out of this situation. Markets are likely to remain
swinging and volatile.
NIFTY Intra Week
Volatility 283 pts
S1 5153.68
S2 5006.56
R1 5324.98
R2 5412.77
