Important News.........!

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Any rate any level any time is a good time to sell and believe me you will be so relieved and getting out of all the long positions short term or long term.

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Only Selling Only Selling no other trade. reversal was such a good oppurtunity.

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Indian shares close down 1.75 percent

MUMBAI (AFP) - Indian shares closed 1.75 percent lower on Wednesday, as investors locked in gains after US stocks fell on persistent inflation and housing data concerns, dealers said.
The benchmark Mumbai 30-share Sensex index fell 274.59 points to 15,422.31.

"Global clues remain uncertain. Investors preferred to book profits ahead of Friday's inflation data," said a dealer at brokerage ULJK Securities.

Dealers said medium-term domestic inflation concerns persisted after annual inflation in Asia's third-largest economy rose to 8.75 percent for the week ended May 31, the highest since February 2001.

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Automobile Sector – May’08

YoY growth rate for May ’08

Two Wheelers: 7.9%

•Motorcycles: 9.2%

•Scooters: 5.7%

Passenger Vehicles:19.4%

•Passenger Cars: 18.0%

•Utility Vehicles: 25.0%

•Multi-Purpose Vehicles: 26.8%

M& HCV: 4.5%

•Goods Carrier: 6.2%

•Passenger Carrier: (4.0%)

•Mopeds: (0.7%)

LCV: 9.9%

•Goods Carrier: 11.4%

•Passenger Carrier: 2.7%

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S&P Nifty (4523.60 points) (+73.80 pts)

S&P Nifty (4523.60 points) (+73.80 pts)
Yesterday, the Bulls must have heaved a sigh of relief. The Nifty
opened higher and then languished around 4500 points. Fresh Bear
raid in the afternoon tested the lows but got absorbed. Short
covering in BHEL, Banking and realty stocks helped the markets to
close at the day’s high. Reliance stood rock steady behind the Bulls.
Action was seen in some Midcap stocks which is reflected in the A/D
ratio (2:1) but the volumes remained almost the same.
As mentioned, since the odds are even, the small players are not
carrying forward their positions; hence short covering is emerging
at lower levels. Volumes are still lower, buying support is required
to threaten the Bears. As long as the Nifty trades below the
resistance line of the orange channel (4670), the Bears need not
worry. Short term trend is down until 4756 points is not decisively
crossed while 4390 points is the pivot.
Yesterday, the Nifty crossed the required high of 4498 points. Today
it has to hit a high above 4573 points (with a hurdle at 4554) for the
pullback to sustain. Intraday, 4511 points is the pivot while crucial
support is at 4480 and 4437 points. Again the Bears will try to
tighten their grip. A tussle is on; protect your positions
appropriately.

NIFTY Intra Week
Volatility 224 pts

S2 4395.00 S3 4271.00
R1 4968.00 R2 5074.00

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Triveni Engg Buy in Dips CMP: 92.15 Tgt: 99-102

The daily candlestick chart of Triveni Engg shows a vertical decline from Rs.131.50 to
Rs.83.90. Short term trend is down with strong support around Rs.82. High risk
traders can buy in small quantities preferably in declines around Rs.88-90
with a strict stop loss below Rs.84 in close for a pullback to Rs.99-102 in the
next 7-8 trading sessions which if sustained on volumes can test Rs.108 in
the short term.

* It’s an anticipatory call Avoid gap openings and trade in cash.

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S&P Nifty (4449.80 points) (-51.15 pts)

The Bear domination prevailed as the Indices closed in red for the
3rd day in succession. A gap down open coupled with fresh selling
pushed the Nifty to new yearly low of 4369 points. ONGC, IT and
FMCG stocks which were holding for the past couple days were led
the decline . Oscillation in Reliance kept the market players on
tender hooks but the Bulls heaved a sigh of relief as short covering
in the heavy weight stocks recovered 80 points from the low. In fact
the discount which had gone to more than 30 points came almost at
par at the closing bell. The A/D ratio was negative at 1:3 with no
significant change in the volumes.
Yesterday, both the weekly s2 (4395) in the Nifty and the March
BSE low (14677) were marginally breached but the Indices pulled
above it at close. Trendline of the “downward sloping channel” is
currently at 4698 points. A decisive close above 4756 points would
threaten the Bears, till then the trend is down. Support in declines
is pegged around 4326-4271 points region. If the Bulls fail to hit a
low below 4319 points we could see some more short covering in the
coming days.
Intraday, 4447 points is the pivot in the Nifty. The Bulls need a
high above 4498 points for the pullback to sustain. Crucial support
is pegged at 4390 points which can be treated as a pivot for the
remaining week. Though the Indices are closing negative, intraday
short covering is emerging at lower levels indicating the odds are
evenly poised from hereon. Keep stop loss and trade.
NIFTY Intra Week
Volatility 224 pts
S2 4395.00
S3 4271.00
R1 4613.00
R2 4756.00

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Short Term..........!

BRFL Chance Buy CMP: 337.35 Tgt: 348-350

The daily candlestick chart of BRFL shows a vertical decline from Rs.417 to Rs.321.It is taking support around Rs.322. High risk traders can buy in smallquantities preferably in declines around Rs.332-333 with a strict stop lossbelow Rs.322 in close for a pullback to Rs.348-350 in the next 5-6 tradingsessions which if sustained Rs.358 in the coming 2-3 weeks.* It’s an anticipatory call Avoid gap openings and trade in cash.
========================================================ACC Buy in Dips CMP: 616.40 Tgt: 648-655

The daily candlestick chart of ACC shows a decline from Rs.855 to Rs.590. Thedownward risk is limited for anticipatory pullback. High risk traders can buy insmall quantities in declines around Rs.605-608 with a strict stop loss belowRs.588 (preferably in close) for a pullback to Rs.648-655 in the next 5-6trading sessions which if sustained on volumes can test Rs.672 in the next 2-3 weeks.

* It’s an anticipatory call Avoid gap openings and trade in cash.

* ST - short term, MT- medium term

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Weekly Market Recap

Fear of a northward movement of the inflation figure, weak cues
from the European markets and the extant political uncertainty
proved troublesome for the Indian bourses this week. The BSE
Sensex registered a loss of 5.1% while the Nifty registered loss
of 5%. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers to the
tune of Rs. 1,047 crore and the Mutual Funds were net buyers to
the tune of Rs. 144.2 crore.
The whole price index rose to 8.24 for the week ended May 24 as
compared to 8.1% in the previous week.
The government hiked the petrol and the diesel prices by Rs.5
and Rs.3 a litre respectively, and that of LPG (cooking gas) by
Rs 50 a cylinder. However, kerosene prices have been left
unchanged. The Union Cabinet has utilized a slew of measures
to offset the effect of surging global oil prices that had put the
national oil companies under pressure. To obviate sharper hikes
the government has brought down the import duty on crude
and products by 5% making duty nil on crude, 2.5% on petrol
and diesel and 5% on jet fuel and other products.
Engineers India declared a considerable rise in standalone net
profit for the fourth quarter ended March 2008. During the
quarter, the profit of the company rose 33.30% to Rs 56.68
crore from Rs 42.52 crore on y-o-y basis. The company posted
earnings of Rs 10.09 per share during the quarter, registering
33.29% growth over previous year. Net sales for the quarter
jumped 49.24% to Rs 242.82 crore, while total income for the
quarter jumped 51.82% to Rs 287.77 crore.
GMR Industries is reportedly investing Rs 800 crore to set up sugar
mills in Karnataka. The company is in the process of setting up two
sugar mills at Ramdurg and Raibag in the Belgaum district of the
state. The company will have a combined capacity of 14,000 ton
crushed per day (TCD) by the end of 2009. It has also taken a semifinished
cooperative sugar factory at Ramdurg from the government
of Karnataka on a 25-year lease, which will have a 2,500 TCD
capacity. It has just completed the acquisition of Alagawadi
Bireshwar Sugars (P) which holds a license to set up and operate a
3,500 TCD sugar mill at Raibagh in Karnataka, for Rs. 17 crore.
DLF Group posted a net profit of Rs 7,812.03 crore for the year
ended Mar. 31, 2008 as compared to Rs 1,933.65 crore for the
year ended Mar. 31, 2007, marking a jump of 4.04 times. Total
income for the year rose 3.62 times to Rs 14,683.91 crore,
compared to Rs. 4,053.01 crore for the last year. On Standalone
basis, DLF reported a phenomenal rise in net profit at Rs 2,574.59
crore for the year ended Mar. 31, 2008 as compared to Rs 406.91
crore for the last year, registering a jump of 6.32 times.
Mercator lines has reportedly acquired a 2006 built double hull -
very large crude carrier (VLCC) of 299, 325 DWT. This is the third
VLCC under control of Mercator Lines, that already has a fleet of
29 vessels. Its net profit jumped 3 fold to Rs. 370 crore supported
by its growing fleet, buoyant shipping demand and firm freight
rates in the dry carrier segment. Its shipping revenue increased
30% to Rs. 1,455 crore.
Punj Llyod said that it has signed an agreement with Singapore
Technologies Kinetics (ST Kinetics) for the manufacture of defence
equipment. Under the agreement, ST Kinetics and Punj Lloyd
would be pooling their resources in the execution of supply
contracts for the Ministry of Defence. It has also bagged a license
for the manufacture of guns, rockets and missile artillery systems
and other equipment as well as Rs 649 crore contract for the
motor spirit quality upgradation project for the Indian Oil
Corporation (for its Barauni Refinery).
On the international front, oil prices maintained their streak of
remarkable intra day volatility, with a US$ 5.4 + rise on Thursday.
This degree of fluctuation indicates the level of entropy in the
crude market, as also the level of edginess vis-à-vis seemingly
minor triggers. Until a long term solution is found to tackle the
issues of supply, alternative energy sources and risk premia, it
seems that the world markets will have to live with such
fluctuations.

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S&P Nifty (4585.60 points) (-130.30 pts)

It was a melt down at our bourses as the Indices lost around 3%.The Nifty opened lower but recovered the lost ground after theannouncement of the oil price hike. Sentiments turned weak on thevarious news flows and once again the market players pressed thepanic button. In a high volatile session, around 180 points wereknocked off from the days high. The A/D ratio was negative at 1:3and the volumes were also higher.Sharp pullback in the Oil stocks was brought to dust. The onlystandout of yesterday’s turmoil was ONGC (up 5%); otherwise thefall would have been terrible. The long term trendline failed torender any support which reflects the might behind the Bear attack.Now all eyes are on the panic lows 4448-4468 points. Immediateresistance should now be shifted to 4826 points while 4968 pointsremains crucial bottleneck.Intraday, the Bears require a low below 4521 points forcontinuation of the down trend. Pivot is pegged at 4611 points whileresistance is at 4658-4702 points. Trend is down; high risk traderswho wish to go longs in declines for an anticipatory pullback canbuy “call-options” (Nifty4600ce, RIL 2400ca) as the risk isquantified; otherwise stay away till the market settles.

NIFTY Intra Week Volatility 224 pts

S2 4702.35
S3 4571.05
R1 4968.00
R2 5074.00

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S&P Nifty (4715.90 points) (-23.70 pts)

The Nifty opened lower and drifted down to hit the daily S2 at 4636points. When the second attempt failed to breach it (4636), someshort covering began. Reliance took the initiative which was wellsupported in rotation by the other heavy weight stocks. In theafternoon session, the pullback turned out to be a rally of around 90points as the intraday shorts had to give up in the end. Volumeswere marginally higher while the A/D ratio was negative at 1:2.In the recovery the Nifty almost filled up the negative opening gap.Crucial support from the trendline support in blue is pegged at 4631points. Immediate resistance is at 4819 points and as long as ittrades below 4968 points treat the rallies as pullbacks only.Resistance line of the upward sloping channel (5010) needs to bedecisively crossed for fresh up momentum.Intraday, crucial support is pegged in the 4680-4690 points’ areawhile resistance at 4758 points if crossed can test 4787-4802 pointsin an optimistic scenario. It has made a “Hammer”, but the Bullsrequire a high of 4826 points in a day or two for the recovery tocontinue, else the markets may consolidate first. Banking and Oilstocks need to gear up for the survival of the Bulls. As the market isvolatile, traders should keep on churning their positions or holdwith trailing stop loss.

NIFTY Intra WeekVolatility 224 pts

S2 4702.35
S3 4571.05
R1 4968.00
R2 5074.00

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Short Terms.........!

IDFC Chance Buy
CMP: 138.65
Tgt: 148-152

The daily candlestick chart of IDFC shows a vertical decline from Rs.182.55 toRs.133.20. It has revisited the support around Rs.134. It has made a Hammer andvolumes have picked up. High risk traders can buy in small quantitiespreferably in declines around Rs.135 with a strict stop loss below Rs.129.80in close for a pullback to Rs.148-152 in the next 7-8 trading sessions.

* It’s an anticipatory call Avoid gap openings and trade in cash.
==========================================================Tata Motors Buy for
CMP: 570.30
Tgt: 592-600

The daily candlestick chart of Tata Motors shows a decline from Rs.695 to Rs.556.The downward risk is limited for anticipatory pullback. High risk traders can buyin small quantities in declines around Rs.560-565 with a strict stop lossbelow Rs.552 (preferably in close) for a pullback to Rs.592-600 in the next 5-6trading sessions which if sustained on volumes can test Rs.614 in the next 2-3 weeks.

* It’s an anticipatory call Avoid gap openings and trade in cash.
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S&P Nifty (4739.60 points) (-130.50 pts)

The brutal Bull massacre resumed after the Friday’s break. Nomercy was shown as the Nifty lost almost 200 points from the dayshigh. The markets opened higher on the backdrop of the IT andbanking stocks but it were the Oil & Gas sector that led the turmoil.Banking stocks, Reliance Pack, ONGC and BHEL were the culpritsof the 2.5% debacle. The A/D ratio was negative at 1:3 while thevolumes were marginally lower.There was no respite once the Nifty broke below 4870 points. Theintensity of the Bull liquidation coupled with selling pressure wasso high that it ripped off all the intraday supports. Trendline of the“downward sloping channel” in blue was also marginally breached.The Nifty has to close above 4734 points in the coming sessions toshow some semblance but as long as the 4916-4932 points’ area isnot decisively crossed upside appears to be capped. On thedownside, support is pegged at 4681 (monthly s1) and 4613 points(trendline joining 4002 and 4468)As mentioned earlier, unless 5040 points is not crossed in closingthe short term continues to remain down. Intraday, pivot at 4768points needs to be sustained for any upside. Resistance is pegged at4787 and at 4826 points. A low below 4704 points can test 4665points in a couple of days. Market is expected to remain swinging,small players should refrain and wait till the volatility cools off.

NIFTY Intra WeekVolatility 224 pts
S2 4702.35
S3 4571.05
R1 4968.00
R2 5074.00

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Short Term........!
Crompton Greav Buy in Dips Only

CMP: 235.60

Tgt: 248-256

The daily candlestick chart of Crompton shows that it is in a short term downtrend.It is pecking the resistance line in pink. Immediate support is at Rs.224. High risktraders can buy in small quantities in declines around Rs.228-230 with astrict stop loss below Rs.222 in close for a pullback to Rs.248-256 in the next7-8 trading sessions .

* It’s an anticipatory call Avoid gap openings and trade in cash.

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Monthly Technicals Report June 2008 & Weekly TTR

S&P Nifty (4871.10 points)

Again the month of May (even years) saw the markets close deep inred. The Bulls failed to overcome the “May fear” losing around 400points in the last fortnight. Market sentiment appeared weak onrise in inflation and crude prices. Among the Sectoral Indices, Auto,Banking, Oil & Gas, Realty and PSU stocks pulled the Indices downwhile the Metal stocks rallied. The underdogs Healthcare, IT andTeck sectors were the star performers (closing 5% above). In the endthe Nifty lost around 300 points while the volumes remained almostthe same.Now in the Nifty, the 78.6% retracement of the rise from 4628-5298points is at 4772 points. Trend line support in blue is pegged at4747 points. Hence the 4750-4775 points’ area is likely to attractsome short covering. Follow stop losses and trade. Unless and untilthe 5040 points is not decisively crossed, the short term trend isdown and for fresh up momentum, trendline resistance in pink(daily chart) at 5262 points needs to be sustained.Currently it is a traders market with stock specific movement. Noone is keeping commitment from a long term scenario. The Nifty isoscillating, while volatility of around 400-500 points is seen for thepast two months. Pullbacks are unable to get converted into rallies.As long as 5078 points is not crossed in close, markets will remainunder pressure with crucial support in declines pegged at 4681points. The Index Heavy weight stocks have to move up in tandemwhich will motivate the Midcap stocks to join and in turn could seea broad based rally on high volumes.

NIFTY Intra WeekVolatility 224 pts
S1 4785.00 S2 4702.35
R1 4968.00 R2 5074.00

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Trace & Track Report
Financial Tech (1736.15)The daily chart of Financial Tech shows thatit is moving sideways after a vertical fall.There is a bullish gap at 1680 which if holdswe could see a pullback. Resistance is atRs.1788 which needs to be sustained for freshup move. Immediate support is at Rs.1680while a breach of Rs.1571 would negate thebelow targets. Track in dips

Resistance: 1788, 1824, 1935.
Support : 1680, 1600, 1570.
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Wockhardt (297.60)

The daily chart of Wockhardt shows asideways move for the past two months. It istaking support at Rs.286 which if holds cantest Rs.310-315 in an immediate scenariowhich if sustained in close can test Rs.334 inthe medium term for which support is atRs.278.

Resistance: 315, 322, 336.
Support : 285, 278, 264.

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Short Term.........!

Allahabad BK Buy

CMP: 80.55

Tgt: 95-98

The monthly candlestick chart of Allahabad Bank shows a sharp decline from
Rs.143.70 to Rs.70.65. The short term oscillators have reached oversold zone and
hence a chance of a pullback. One can gradually buy at current levels as well as
in declines at Rs.74-76 with a strict stop loss below Rs.71 in close for a target
of Rs.95-98 which if sustained Rs.107 in the coming 4-6 weeks.


* Avoid gap openings and volumes are less hence trade in small quantity.
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GNFC Buy

CMP: 152.65

Tgt: 168 & 182

The daily candlestick chart of GNFC shows that it is oscillating in an upward sloping
channel in blue. Support is pegged at Rs.145 which if holds can test Rs.168 and
Rs.182. One can gradually buy at current levels as well as in declines at
Rs.145 with a strict stop loss below Rs.138 in close for a target of Rs.168
which if sustained Rs.182-188 in the coming 6-8 weeks.

* Avoid gap openings and volumes are less hence trade in small quantity.
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