S&P Nifty (3850.05 points) (-50.70 pts)

It was blood on the D-street as the Indices hit new 2008 low.
Barring FMCG sector, sell off was seen all across the board.
Banking, CGS, IT and Realty stocks were down 5%. Meltdown was
also witnessed in Midcap segment. The Nifty opened lower and kept
on drifting down in the first session. In afternoon, it marginally
breached the recent low at 3790 points (current low 3777). Last
hour of trade was extremely volatile with over 75-80 points swings
on both the sides. Failing to breach the day’s low saw a fair amount
of short covering. RIL and Bharti bounced smartly recovering
around 100 points in the Nifty. Volumes were higher and the A/D
ratio was negative at1:3.
The Nifty came al most near the Head & Shoulder target of 3770
points. A decisive breach of it would lead to fresh downswing with
support at 3663 points. Weekly S2 is pegged at 3724 points.
Immediate resistance has shifted down to 4115-4150 points while
short term trend remains down as long as 4245 points is not
decisively crossed.
Intraday, pivot is pegged at 3885 points which needs to be sustained
for any up move. Resistance is at 3924 and up at 3795-4015 points
in an optimistic scenario. Crucial support in declines is at 3770 and
3724 points. Steroids and Injections seem to have no effect on the
ailing Bulls. If the support holds we might see a small pullback, but
failing in it their nightmare continues!!!

NIFTY Intra Week

Volatility 332 pts

S1 3811.35

S2 3724.40

R1 4202.20

R2 4445.00

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S&P Nifty (4074.90 points) (+2.00pts)

Yesterday, the Bulls triumphed in an intensely fought battle. A
huge crack developed at the open was filled up by the end of the
day. Reliance and Banking (PSU) stocks recovered smartly and with
the CGS sector chipping in; what appeared to be pullback emerged
into a 150 points rally. Intraday Bulls had no option but to give up.
Volumes were higher but the A/D ratio was marginally negative.
Short covering was seen when the Nifty touched the 1st target of
3920 points (also a fall of 300 points from 4220 as mentioned
earlier). Now the 3920-3938 points’ area (weekly s2) is a crucial
support but the Nifty needs to sustain above 4220 points to ward off
the Bear threat. Resistance is pegged at 4323 and 4445 points.
We are seeing a “long legged doji” pattern after a 639 points fall in 7
sessions. The odds have become even around 3950 points. Intraday,
pivot is at 4028 points with crucial support at 3960 and 3920 points.
If it sustains above 4077 points then a test of 4129-4167 points. The
Index Heavy weights have ably shouldered the responsibility, now
it’s a matter to hold on. As expected, Reliance and Banking stocks
performed; now contribution of Metal pack is required to keep the
momentum otherwise the nightmare continues.

NIFTY Intra Week

Volatility 292 pts

S1 4099.70

S2 3938.85

R1 4361.90

R2 4563.00

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Short Term........!

Essar Oil Risky Buy
CMP: 173.35
Tgt: 181-184


The daily candlestick chart of Essar Oil shows a bullish candle. It is getting support
around Rs.160. The oscillators are turning up from the oversold zone . One can buy in
declines around Rs.168-170 with a strict stop loss below Rs.162 in close for a pullback
up to Rs.181-184 in the coming 7-8 trading sessions. A breach of Rs.158 would negate
the pullback.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.
================================================================


Dabur Ind Chance Buy
CMP: 88.80
Tgt: 92.80-95


The daily candlestick chart of Dabur shows a bullish candle. It is nearing the support
at Rs.85 which if holds can test Rs.92.80-95 in the coming 7-8 trading sessions. High
risk traders can buy in declines with a strict stop loss below Rs.85 in close.

* Trade in cash and in small quantities.

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S&P Nifty (4072.90 points) (-155.55 pts)

It was mayhem as the markets were bleeding with a deep cut of
3.8%. Around 550 points were knocked off from the Nifty in the last
5 trading sessions. Global fears continue to haunt the ailing Bulls.
Barring FMCG, all the Sectoral Indices plunged. They opened lower
and drifted down further to an intraday low of 3955 points but
recovery in SBI and RIL led the pullback of around 150 points in
the last hour. Volumes were higher while the A/D ratio was highly
negative at 1:5.

As mentioned earlier break out below 4220 points saw a swift move
of 250-300 points. The targets as per “Head & Shoulder” pattern
3920 and 3770 points. It also completed the 78.6% retracement of
the rise from 3790-4649 points. It has to sustain above 4220 points
(neck line) to show some semblance. Resistance is pegged at 4338
while trendline in brown is at 4445 points.
Intraday, pivot is at 4088 points which if sustained then resistance
is at 4156 points. Crucial support in declines is at 3960 and 3920
points. The Bulls need to reunite with an uphill task of arresting
the fall lies on the shoulders of the Index Heavyweights. Markets
are likely to remain volatile, trade cautiously.

NIFTY Intra Week

Volatility 292 pts

S1 4099.70

S2 3938.85

R1 4361.90

R2 4563.00

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Monday, September 15, 2008

Precious Metals


MCX October Gold – We saw the short covering rally on Friday and it is likely to continue till 11676 levels which is a trend reversal level. A close above this level is required to reverse the current downtrend.
Trend – DownNext

Targets – NeutralTrend

Reversal – 11676Support – 11378, 11293, 11171

Resistance – 11542, 11676, 11790



MCX December Silver – We should see more short covering in the coming days only to find resistance at the trend reversal level of 18782. A close above this level will reverse the current downtrend.
Short Term Trend – Down
Next Target – Neutral
Trend Reversal – 18782
Support – 18040, 17925, 11752
Resistance – 18256, 18487, 18782



MCX November Copper – Posted a trend reversal. More upside likely if the prices manages to close above 328. Conservative traders are recommended to trade above 328.
Short Term Trend – Up
Next Target – 340
Trend Reversal – 305
Support – 323, 317, 310
Resistance – 328, 332, 338

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market comments - 11th Sep.

MCX October Gold – Negative bias will continue, however prices are oversold and likely to see a short covering rally
Trend – Down
Next Targets – Neutral
Trend Reversal – 11945
Support – 11276, 11186, 11126
Resistance – 11465, 11542, 11680

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Metals & Energy News Headlines

Metals & Energy News

*Forex reserves dip $2 b as RBI sell dollars. The Economic Times

*FMC extends ban on Future trade in four commodities. Business Standard
*

*Rupee falls to 20-month low. Business Standard

*US stocks fall on drop in payrolls. Business Standard

*Comexes’ turnover rises 45% in August. Business Standard

*Govt hikes support price for cotton. Mint

*Unemployment rate hits 5-year high as economy sheds more jobs. Mint

*Oil cos keen on Columbian hydrocarbon sector. Business Line

*Zinc prices likely to slide further on oversupply. Business Line

*Gold rallies on US report. Business Line

*Copper drops below $7000/t. Business Line

*China steel prices gain. Business Line

*Crude drops to 5 month low as $ gains. Business Line

*NSE currency futures trade drifts to realistic levels. Business Line

*Oil marketing companies gain from fall in crude prices. Business Line

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AGRI COMMODITIES NEWS

*Govt extends ban on 4 COMMODITY futures (till Nov 30)…..as per estimates, since ban was imposed, RUBBER prices in India rose by 12%, SOY BEAN OIL and CHANA by 4% each, only POTATO prices fell by 12% (IE)

*COMMEXES’ turnover rises 45% in August (compared to last year) (BS)

*COTTON production seen at 32.5 million bales for crop year ending Sept 2009 (FE)

*RICE, OILSEEDS acreage up; CEREALS, PULSES decline (FE)

*The Commission for Agricultural Costs & Prices (CACP) recommends SMP of Rs 125/Q for SUGARCANE in 09-10 (ET)

*Bihar floods take a toll on PADDY (BL)

AA : The Asian Age

BL : Business Line

BS : Business Standard

CM : Capital Market

ET : The Economic Times

FE : Financial Express

HT : The Hindustan Times

IE : The Indian Express

RS : Rashtriya Sahara

TOI : Times of India

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S&P Nifty (4348.65 points) (-11.35 pts)

The Nifty opened lower but the Bulls held on and prevented any
further damage. Repeated attempts in the afternoon failed to break
the days low as a result of which intraday short covering was seen
in the end. The CGS sector recovered from the low and with ONGC
and banking stocks leading the counter-attack; all the intraday
losses got wiped off at last trade. Volumes were lower and the A/D
ratio was marginally positive.
Yesterday, resistance line in pink acted as support. Today it is
pegged at 4267 points. Some support is seen around the 50%
retracement of the rise from 3790-4649 points. The Bears need to
decisively break 4198-4220 points’ area for fresh downswing.
Resistance in rallies is at 4445 and 4529 points.
Intraday, pivot in the Nifty is pegged at 4356 points. If it sustains
above it then resistance in rallies is at 4408 and 4445 points. The
Bears need to break below 4276 points to negate the pullback.
Immediate support is at 4315 points. The Bears will again apply
their might in the coming days hence be careful and keep on taking
profits in long at regular intervals.

NIFTY Intra Week

Volatility 265 pts

S1 4234.50

S2 4141.55

R1 4433.90

R2 4540.40

Voltas

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Short Terms...........!

Voltas Ltd Chance

Buy CMP: 124.70

Tgt: 129-132

The daily candlestick chart of Voltas shows a bullish candle. After a vertical decline
from Rs.147, it has once again taken support around Rs.118-119. High risk traders
can buy in declines around Rs.122 with a strict stop loss below Rs.119 in close for a
pullback to Rs.129-132 in the coming 7-8 days. A breach of Rs.118 can see it drifting
to Rs.114.

* Trade in cash and in small quantities.

=====================================================

Parsvnath Dev Chance

Buy CMP: 120.05

Tgt: 125-128

The daily candlestick chart of Parsvnath shows a bullish candle on high volumes. It
has closed above Rs.120 for the first time in the last 5-6 sessions. High risk traders
can buy Parsvnath in declines with a strict stop loss above Rs.115.20 in close
for a pullback to Rs.125-128-132 in the coming 7-8 trading sessions.
* Trade in cash and in small quantities.

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