Friday, May 29, 2009

Metals & Energy Report (01/06/2009)

• Gold climbed above $980 per ounce after 3 months as dollar tumbled against euro
• Crude oil surged for biggest monthly gain since 1999 easing economic downturn
• Michigan Surveys of Consumers reading on consumer sentiments stand at 68.7
• Copper surged a slumping dollar and equity gains boosted demand


Gold climbed above $980 per ounce as traders bought the metal as a hedge against weakness in the dollar,
which fell to five-month lows against a basket of currencies. The re-establishment of bullion's inverse correlation
with the dollar had put further milestones in view. If the dollar continues to be sold, the first obvious target is
$1,006 an ounce. Moreover Silver prices are benefiting from strong investment demand for the metal, with
buying of silver-backed exchange-traded funds soaring since the beginning of 2009 and speculative net long
positions on the COMEX futures exchange rising. While industrial and photographic demand for the metal is
lackluster, investors are buying the metal as a cheap proxy for gold.

Crude oil jumped above $66 per barrel after strengthening economic data suggested the economic downturn
may be easing. Influencing inventories data by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on U.S. crude oil
stocks, which tumbled by 5.4 million barrels in the week, was highly supportive. OPEC's decision to hold oil
production steady also helped prop up prices. The producer group kept its output targets unchanged as
expected, betting on a strengthening world economy and tentative signs of increased demand.

Optimism over the U.S. government's stimulus programs to combat the recession lifted consumer confidence in
May to its highest level in eight months, according to a survey showed. The Reuters/University of Michigan
Surveys of Consumers said its final May reading on consumer sentiments was 68.7, higher than an early May
figure of 67.9 and a final April reading of 65.1. This was slightly above economists' median expectation of a
reading of 68.0, according to a Reuter's poll. Consumers' outlook over the next 12 months and five years also
jumped since April, spurred by confidence in President Barack Obama's economic stimulus measures such as
rebate checks and extension of unemployment benefits.

Copper was up on back of the weak dollar against the euro and economic optimism remained upbeat after a
batch of data suggested the global recession may be easing. Japanese industrial production rose 5.2% in April on
a monthly basis, and the government said it expected continued gains through June. U.S. growth data also
reinforced the sense that the global economic slump might be abating. Copper's gains slowed after data showed
business activity in the U.S. Midwest shrank in May much more than expected. Moreover London Metal
Exchange warehouse stocks slipped 4,850 tonnes to 312,275 tonnes. Elsewhere lead rose 5%, tracking an
industrial metals rally as rising equities and a weak dollar boosted markets, moreover supply issues were also
supporting prices.

Friday, May 15, 2009

Crude oil tumbled below $57 a barrel pressured by weak global demand

Crude oil tumbled below $58 a barrel pressured by
Crude oil tumbled below $58 a barrel pressured by weak global demand and by gains in the U.S. dollar againstthe euro. The U.S. dollar was slightly up against a basket of major currencies, having risen earlier following weakGerman economic data. On the other hand, European data shows worse than expected first quarter GDP, andthat's bearish, particularly for distillate as that is the biggest market for those products. The International EnergyAgency said world oil demand this year will post the sharpest annual decline since 1981 as the economystruggles to bounce back. Demand will contract by 2.56 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2009, the IEA, whichadvises 28 industrialized countries, said in a monthly report. Nigerian militants have hijacked two cargo ships inthe Niger Delta and given oil companies until Saturday to evacuate staff, warning they would attack helicoptersand planes after the deadline, after heavy clashes with the military.

India's Congress Can Retain Power without Communists

May 15 (Bloomberg) -- India’s Congress party is confident it can retain power without needing to mend ties with the Communists, who want to limit foreign investment and almost brought down the government last year over a nuclear energy deal with the U.S.
“We can form the government without the Left,” Trade Minister Kamal Nath said in an interview yesterday in New Delhi. “We’re not looking at the Communists at the moment.”
Congress may need to woo former allies or find new partners to form a majority in parliament after elections that concluded May 13, exit polls showed. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the communists, or Left-wing parties, parted ways in July after four years of wrangling on issues ranging from allowing retailers including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. into the country to increased foreign ownership of insurers.
“I don’t think Congress will make the mistake of wanting to form a government with the Left again unless all other strategies have been exhausted,” said Prem Shankar Jha, an independent political analyst and former aide to former Prime Minister Vishwanath Pratap Singh.
The benchmark Sensitive Index rose for the 10th week, the longest winning streak in almost three years, on optimism Singh’s re-election without communist interference will give the government more scope to tackle slowing economic growth.

Election results will be announced tomorrow.

Third-Largest Bloc

India’s four Communist parties currently hold 61 of 543 lower-house seats, making them the third-largest bloc in parliament after groups led by Congress and the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party. Exit polls indicated the Communists may lose almost half of those seats and Congress has already forged an alliance with the Trinamool Congress Party in the Communist stronghold of West Bengal.
The communists did support patent laws and the establishment of tax-free trade zones, “but they do carry an ideological baggage and sometimes that is a problem, which is a deterrent to economic reforms,” Nath said.
Nomura Holdings Inc. said last month that India’s next government would offer better prospects for economic reforms without relying on Communist allies for support.
“If the Bharatiya Janata Party or the Congress form the new government not beholden to the Communists, we would remain cautiously optimistic about India’s prospects and firmly of the view that the potential growth rate could rise to 10 percent in the medium term,” Nomura said in a report.
India’s economic growth rate may ease to 6 percent in the year that started April 1, the slowest pace since 2003, the central bank said April 21.

Exit Polls

Six television networks forecast the ruling alliance led by Congress may emerge just ahead of a rival grouping led by the BJP. CNN-IBN predicted Congress and its allies will get as many as 205 seats compared with a maximum 185 for the opposing coalition. Star News-Nielsen and News X gave the Congress-led bloc 199 seats to 191 for the BJP.
The Communist parties won’t support a Congress-led administration, the Economic Times reported yesterday, citing Prakash Karat, general secretary of the biggest group, the Communist Party of India (Marxist).
Still, to keep out its arch rival BJP, whose Hindu ideology the Left opposes, the communists may back Singh for a second term in office, the Hindustan Times reported, without citing anyone. The paper quoted Karat as saying no government is possible without the support of the Communists.
Nath said internal voter surveys by Congress indicate a stronger showing than that projected in the exit polls, reducing the number of partners it will need to form a government. The party is prepared to negotiate with the Communists if that proves necessary.
“Of course, if we have to do business with them, then we will have to negotiate with them the terms of business,” he said. “They left. We did not throw them out.”

Thursday, May 7, 2009

What to expect in May 09


*The forward PE of Sensex has now taken an upturn in April, standing at around 13x the FY10 earnings. Religare Equity Research expects Sensex P/E to go to highs of 14x – 15x and Sensex could move to maximum 13000 levels in current rally.


*Equity markets have moved up in no time with over 30% returns. Investor may allocate around 40% of total corpus to equity, book profits on rest of the portfolio and wait for correction of around 10-12% or up to Sensex 10500 to make another 30% investment in markets.

*IMF says that the Indian economy is projected to grow 4.5% in 2009, down from 5.1% projected earlier with the growth rate expected to rise to 5.6% in 2010. The global economy on the other hand is set to projected to contract 1.3% in 2009.

*The expected continuation of the slump is on account of the probable write-offs of the toxic bank debt in the US, Europe and Japan which could reach $4.1 trillion.

*While the recent run-up rally in the Indian markets may have raised the valuations from rock bottom levels seen at the beginning of the year, we can still find tremendous buying opportunities in the Indian market due to its growth potential.

*The RBI expects the Indian economy to grow at 5.7% in FY10. This number is still higher as compared to most global and Asian economies.

*Investor may build a long term oriented portfolio of large cap fund investments and buy in staggered manner during big market corrections.

Stress Tests Determine 10 U.S. Banks Need Total Capital of $74.6 Billion

The Federal Reserve determined that 10 U.S. banks need to raise a total of $74.6 billion in capital, a finding that Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said should reassure investors about the soundness of the financial system. The results showed that losses at the banks under ``more adverse'' economic conditions than most economists anticipate could total $599.2 billion over two years. Mortgage losses present the biggest part of the risk, at $185.5 billion. Trading accounts were the second-largest vulnerability, with potential losses of $99.3 billion. The conclusion of the unprecedented probe of the health of the largest 19 lenders opens an exit for some of the firms from a tense partnership between Wall Street and the government. Others will have six months to fill their capital shortfalls and may be forced to accept expanded federal
ownership that could prompt changes in their management. ``The results released today should provide considerable comfort to investors and the public,'' Bernanke said in a statement. ``The examiners found that nearly all the banks that were evaluated have enough Tier 1 capital to absorb the higher losses envisioned under the hypothetical adverse scenario.''